The attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump on Saturday sent shock waves throughout the world, generating a torrent of reactions, analyses and predictions about its political impacts in the US and elsewhere.
The powerful photograph capturing Trump with his fist in the air and blood streaking down his cheek, surrounded by Secret Service agents with an American flag hanging at an odd angle set in the background immediately stole the first page of newspapers and hit social media around the world, which has certainly shown him in a defiant light among American voters.
Some political pundits said that Trump, partly helped by the iconic image and his actions in the aftermath of the assassination attempt, has strengthened his election prospects, which could lead to a win in the forthcoming presidential race.
Given that there are still nearly four months away from the make-or-break US election in November, nobody knows how new developments will happen and put a fresh spin on the presidential race between US President Joe Biden -- if he continues his reelection bid as he has repeatedly said he will -- and Trump.
What’s certain, though, is that South Korea will confront a host of profound changes and challenges in diplomacy and security matters if Trump wins and starts “Trump 2.0.”
Analysts and media outlets in South Korea are already calling on the Yoon Suk Yeol administration to take proactive steps and preparations in case Trump wins the election and pushes ahead with a second phase of his “America First” policies.
During the Biden administration, South Korea has largely strengthened its relations with the US, compared with the period when Trump was in the White House. At the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit held in Washington last week, South Korea was one of the three countries that held bilateral talks with Biden. And in a meeting on July 11, Yoon and Biden issued joint guidelines for nuclear deterrence and nuclear operations on the Korean Peninsula, reaffirming the cooperative relations between the two allies regarding the sensitive security issue.
But if Trump is reelected, the Yoon administration could face many changes, some of which could be embarrassing, if not alarming. For starters, it is feared that Trump, who bragged of his friendship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, will bypass the South Korean government to communicate directly with North Korea. If Trump somehow misunderstands the North’s nuclear weapons strategy and loosens sanctions against the reclusive regime in return for the mere gesture of freezing its nuclear weapons programs, the Korean Peninsula could get engulfed in a fresh round of greater security risks.
Under any circumstances, South Korea must keep its strong alliance with the US in a way that blocks North Korea from advancing its nuclear and missile programs. To that end, the Yoon administration must beef up its communication channels with Trump's team.
Another bewildering issue involves defense costs. Trump repeated his questions about the current cost-sharing scheme, asking why the US has to protect a "very wealthy country" like Korea in a Time interview in April. There is no doubt that Trump will put greater pressure on South Korea to shoulder more defense costs if he returns to the White House.
According to Korean media reports, Trump had demanded South Korea pay $5 billion annually, more than five times the amount the country currently covers. If this is the case, the Korean government will not be able to avoid raising its share of the defense costs, but it has to let Trump know that South Korea already covers a significant share of defense costs, especially when compared with Europe.
Trade conflicts constitute an equally burdensome topic for South Korea, as Trump has threatened to supercharge his protectionist trade policies by imposing 10 percent across-the-board tariffs on all products imported into the US from overseas.
Trump’s heavy tariff policy is aimed at addressing the view that US workers are losing their jobs in the face of cheaper imported goods. The Yoon administration must deliver a message that South Korea is contributing to the creation of new jobs in the US by heavily investing in the semiconductor industry, electric vehicle batteries and other business sectors there.
The Korean presidential office is reportedly assessing the potential impact of the assassination attempt on Trump. As for the US election, nothing is set in stone yet. But given the country’s close ties with the US, it must seriously consider the possibility of a Trump second term.
