If the presidential election were to be held today, Park Geun-hye of the ruling Saenuri Party would likely defeat her rival, Moon Jae-in of the main opposition United Democratic Party. Park leads Moon by a margin of 3.8 percentage points.
Nonetheless, Park could hardly be assured of her win. Her lead was within the margin of error. Moreover, she would have to take into consideration so many variables, both known and unknown, that could affect the outcome of the Dec. 19 vote.
Among the most notable is the course of action to be taken by Ahn Cheol-soo, an independent who bowed out of the race against Moon for the mandate of the entire opposition last month. Ahn still holds power to be reckoned with.
Many believe the outcome of the election will undoubtedly be swayed by what role he decides to play in regards to Moon’s campaign during the next two weeks. Ahn’s potential influence is confirmed by the findings of another survey. According to an opinion poll conducted by a business daily, 51 percent of the electorate believes that Moon would be elected president should Ahn throw his weight behind the opposition candidate.
The same poll finds that 57.8 percent of those who profess to have supported Ahn have now shifted their loyalty to Moon. Park has won over 26.7 percent and the rest are now undecided.
Indeed, voter analyses say Ahn could easily add 2 or 3 percentage points to Moon’s approval ratings if he decides to actively engage Ahn supporters that now remain undecided or have decided to support Park.
No wonder, the Democratic United Party is desperate to entice Ahn to embark on the campaign trail in support of the underdog candidate. No matter what he may say, however, the party will find it difficult to rely on him for his wholehearted support for its candidate, given the not-so-smooth negotiations for the single candidacy that Ahn had with Moon. Ahn may still be smarting from what he perceived to be Moon’s attempt to manipulate public opinion.
On the eve of candidate registration on Nov. 25-26, Ahn called off the negotiations and announced he was giving up his bid for the presidency. He and his top aides complained about the spin that Moon’s election camp had allegedly been putting on the coverage of the negotiations by news media to its advantage.
Before entreating Ahn for his unwavering commitment to supporting Moon, the Democratic United Party will have to dwell on what prompted Ahn, a medical doctor-turned computer vaccine guru, to jump into the political arena and then agree to negotiate a joint opposition candidacy with Moon in the first place.
Since he set his sights on the presidency, he has repeatedly called for a political reform, saying the political community will have to transform itself first if it wants to improve the quality of life for people. He believes that both the ruling and opposition parties, residing in a cocoon of self-complacency and government support, have failed to connect with people. He has demanded a deep cut in the number of lawmakers and government subsidies to political parties, the downsizing of party machinery and a shift to the selection of candidates through primaries.
His reform proposals have undoubtedly had a great appeal to the electorate, given that he had frequently been ahead of Park and Moon in approval ratings before he quit. One of the mistakes he made, however, was that he failed to prioritize his proposals, articulate those of high priority and develop action plans for them. Nor did Ahn surmount the obstacles he encountered as an independent, including the absence of an organized power base solid enough to help him push for his political agenda.
What Moon and his election team need to do before seeking Ahn’s help is accommodate many of Ahn’s reform proposals and include them in their manifesto. There will be few better strategies to entice Ahn and his erstwhile supporters.
The sooner Moon offers to meet Ahn on this issue, the better it will be for him to improve the odds of being elected. For his part, Ahn, who disbanded his election team on Monday, should now feel freer to discuss the issue with Moon than before.
