Financial professionals are optimistic about the global economy, just not as fervent about it as they were at the start of the year. That’s the message from the latest Bloomberg Markets Global Investor Poll, which shows concern about risks ranging from the turmoil in Ukraine to the threat of deflation in Europe.
Forty percent of respondents in the survey of Bloomberg customers say the global economy is improving, another 43 percent say it’s stable, and only 12 percent say it’s deteriorating. Still, the enthusiasm has cooled: 59 percent thought the economy was improving in the last edition of the poll, in January; that was the highest reading since the world emerged from recession in 2009.
“I wouldn’t say investors are nervous, but they’re skeptical,” says Jack Ablin, who helps manage $66 billion in assets as chief investment officer of BMO Private Bank in Chicago.
The poll, conducted quarterly since late 2009, samples the opinions of traders, bankers and money managers who subscribe to the Bloomberg Professional service. Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, collected responses from 594 customers from April 22 to 24. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points and is weighted to reflect the global distribution of Bloomberg users.
When it comes to predicting the course of economies and markets in the poll, Bloomberg customers have had some successes. They turned optimistic about the U.S. in January 2012, amid concerns about the effect on growth of a set of tax increases. They soured on the BRIC countries ― Brazil, Russia, India and China ― in early 2011, as those stock markets began to slide. They got bullish on stocks at the beginning of 2013, a year that saw the MSCI World Index rise 24 percent. (Bloomberg)
