키프로스 사태가 '찻잔 속 태풍'에 그칠 것인지는 은행예금 부담금 부과 여부에 달렸다고 19일 증시 전문가들이 진단했다.
지난 주말 유럽연합(EU) 정상회의에서 나온 키프로스 구제금융지원안은 유로존(유로화 사용 17개국) 은행권의 뱅크런 우려를 자극하며 풍파를 일으키고 있다.
키프로스 당국이 비거주자를 포함한 모든 은행 계좌에 6.75∼9.9%의 손실부담금을 부과하기로 했기 때문이다.
박상현 하이투자증권 연구원은 "키프로스의 은행예금 부담금이 금융시장의 불안강도를 좌우할 것"이라며 "구제금융 제공 조건에 부담금이 들어가면 스페인, 이탈리아, 포르투갈, 그리스를 중심으로 금융시장 불안이 이어질 수 있다"고 말했다.
유로존에서 처음 도입되는 은행예금 부담금은 스페인, 이탈리아 등 유로존 위기국에도 적용될 수 있다는 우려가 나온다.
박 연구원은 "국민 불만과 뱅크런 현상이 확산하자 키프로스 정부가 부담금을 낮추는 내용의 수정안을 유로존 측에 제시한 것으로 알려졌다"며 "앞으로 은행예금과세 문제가 어떤 식으로 합의될지 지켜봐야 한다"고 설명했다.
이상재 현대증권 연구원은 "키프로스 사태가 '찻잔 속 태풍'에 그칠 가능성이 크다"면서도 "사상 최고치에 근접한 글로벌 증시가 단기 조정될 빌미를 줄 수 있다"고 우려했다.
증시 전문가들은 유로존 국가들이 금융 불안을 원치 않기 때문에 은행예금 부담금 문제가 조만간 해결될 것이라는 데 무게를 뒀다.
이상재 연구원은 키프로스 은행예금 부담금 부과는 경제적 요인보다는 러시아의 불법자금을 겨냥한 정치적 색채가 강하다고 분석했다.
키프로스는 은행산업 규모가 2011년 기준으로 GDP의 835%를 차지하고 있다. 키프로스 은행권 예금잔액(680억유로)의 40∼50%가 비거주자 소유로, 대부분의 자금이 돈세탁을 원하는 러시아 예금주의 것으로 추정되고 있다.
유럽중앙은행(ECB)의 유동성 공급 창구가 여전히 열려 있는 만큼 대규모 예금 인출이 발생해도 금융기관의 신용경색이 재발할 위험은 낮은 것으로 보인다.
허재환·서대일 KDB 대우증권 연구원은 "표면적으로 나타난 키프로스 사태는 일시적이고 예외적인 경우로 해석하는 것이 타당하다"고 진단했다.
경제 규모가 크지 않고 조세피난처라는 특성, 그리고 정부 재정위기보다는 금융기관 위기의 성격이 큰 점 등을 고려해야 한다는 지적이다.
다만, 이번 사태는 긴 호흡에서 보면 유로존 문제는 여전히 갈 길이 멀다는 것을 재확인하는 계기가 됐다고 두 연구원은 지적했다.
이들은 "긴축 피로감이 극에 달한 상황에서 키프로스 사태를 빌미로 반(反) 유로주의자들의 목소리가 커지는 등 유럽 내 통합 논의가 어려워질 수 있고 유로존에 대한 신뢰도 다소 흔들릴 수 있다"고 말했다.
이어 "키프로스 같은 소규모 국가에까지 예금자들의 고통 분담을 요구한 것은 EU의 자금지원 여력이 많지 않거나 트로이카(IMF, EU, ECB)의 긴축에 대한 입장이 그다지 유연하지 않다는 점을 시사한다"고 덧붙였다.
<관련 영문 기사>
Savings account seizure plan draws fury in Cyprus
A plan to seize up to 10 percent of savings accounts in Cyprus to help pay for a (euro) 15.8 billion ($20.4 billion) financial bailout was met with fury Monday, and the government shut down banks until later this week while lawmakers wrangled over how to keep the island nation from bankruptcy.
Though the euro and stock prices of European banks fell, global financial markets largely remained calm, and there was little sense that bank account holders elsewhere across the continent faced similar risk.
Political leaders in Cyprus scrambled to devise a new plan that would not be so burdensome for people with less than (euro) 100,000 ($129,290) in the bank.
The authorities delayed a parliamentary vote on the seizure of (euro) 5.8 billion ($7.5 billion)and ordered banks to remain shut until Thursday while they try to modify the deal, which must be approved by other eurozone governments. Once a deal is in place, they will be ready to lend Cyprus (euro) 10 billion ($13 billion) in rescue loans.
A rejection of the package could see the country go bankrupt and possibly drop out of the euro currency _ an outcome that would be even more damaging to financial markets‘ confidence.
Even while playing down the chance of fresh market turmoil, experts warned that the surprise move broke an important taboo against making depositors pay for Europe’s bailouts. As a result, it may have longer-term consequences for confidence in Europe‘s banking system _ and its ability to end its financial crisis.
``It’s a precedent for all European countries. Their money in every bank is not safe,‘’ said lawyer Simos Angelides at an angry protest outside parliament in Cyprus‘ capital, Nicosia, where people chanted, ``Thieves, thieves!’‘
Eurozone finance ministers held a telephone conference Monday night, and concluded that small depositors should not be hit as hard as others. They said the Cypriot authorities will stagger the deposit seizures more, but they remained firm in demanding that the overall sum of money raised by the seizures remain the same.
In the short term, there was little sign of a new explosion in the European financial crisis. Stock markets dropped in early hours but stabilized by the close. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 62.05 points, or 0.4 percent, to 14,452.06 Monday. The euro fell 0.6 percent _ a bad day, but hardly a token of impending doom. Government bond prices for Italy and Spain were roughly unchanged, suggesting that investors do not expect the market trouble to spread beyond Cyprus for now.
In part, that may be due to the fact that Cyprus’ case is by many measures an exception.
The decision to hit deposits up to (euro) 100,000 ($129,290) _ the deposit insurance limit in Cyprus _ with a 6.75 percent tax and those above that with a 9.9 percent tax was dictated partly by the unusual qualities of the country‘s financial system.
Cyprus, with only 0.2 percent of the eurozone economy, has a bloated banking system seven times the size of the island’s economy. Losses on Greek government bonds had crippled Cypriot banks and required government money to bail them out. Meanwhile, a large proportion of deposits _ 37 percent _ come from people outside Cyprus and the European Union, much of it from Russia.
European leaders wanted to limit the size of the rescue loans _ which are backed by European taxpayers _ to (euro) 10 billion ($13 billion). Leaders were also reluctant to bail out Russian depositors whose funds may be the result of tax evasion, crime or money laundering.
Dario Perkins, an analyst at Lombard Street Research, noted that ``the German government couldn‘t be seen bailing out Russian mafiosi just before an election.’‘
He said the bailout also showed that European leaders were willing to decisively confront Cyprus’ problem _ rather than postponing the day of reckoning with a partial solution. ``On one level, you could argue this deal is good news,‘’ he wrote in a note to investors.
Officials say by tapping the depositors, they are reducing the total amount of debt taken on by the government, keeping it to a high but manageable 100 percent of GDP by 2020. That will mean less-painful austerity cutbacks than those that were imposed on Greece as a condition of its loans. Partly as a result, Greece is in the sixth year of recession.
Markets have been more resistant to new shocks since the European Central Bank‘s offer to purchase the bonds of indebted countries, lowering their borrowing costs. No bonds have been bought, but the offer’s mere existence has calmed markets and left the eurozone far more resilient than it was a year ago. Last month‘s indecisive election in heavily indebted Italy, for instance, ruffled the market for only a day or two. Such fears were shortly dismissed by ECB President Mario Draghi as only ``the angst of the week.’‘
European authorities, meanwhile, have ways to defuse bank runs, should they occur. If depositors start withdrawing money, the ECB and national central banks can replace the funds with cheap credit through their emergency lending programs _ so long as the banks have securities to put up as collateral.
But down the road, the Cyprus precedent, even if quickly reversed, could come back to haunt eurozone policy makers by making depositors less sure about the safety of their money in case of trouble. It could also complicate creation of an EU-wide system of bank deposit insurance, part of long-term efforts to create a more robust financial system and prevent future crises.
Technically, the national deposit insurance scheme remains intact. The money is being taken as a one-time tax _ little comfort to those who thought their money was safe. If another eurozone country runs into a banking crisis, a run on the banks there will be more likely.
``The damage is done,’‘ said Louise Cooper, who heads financial research firm CooperCity in London. ``Europeans now know that their savings could be used to bail out banks.’‘
The deal adds uncertainty for depositors and investors because it underlines to ordinary people that there is no EU-wide deposit guarantee. Insuring deposits is a national responsibility _ and can only be done when the government has the money.
``Basically, Cyprus has not honored, at least as of Saturday morning, an obligation that is enshrined in EU legislation,’‘ said Nicholas Veron, a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. ``It clearly has consequences because I think there is a very clear message to depositors in Europe.
``It will not affect their behavior immediately, but it might affect their behavior in a future crisis,’‘ he said.(AP)
