The Z/Yen Group just published its annual Global Financial Centers Index and Tokyo is tied with Shanghai for fifth place. If the survey were retaken today, what might happen to Tokyo’s standing?
What a difference 12 days make: a massive earthquake, deadly tsunamis, radiation panic that only now is coming under control and blackouts that halted production at the likes of Toyota Motor Corp. Japan’s world changed on March 11.
Tokyo withstood the 9-magnitude quake impressively. Yet there’s a reason champagne corks aren’t popping. It wasn’t the “Big One” Japan has prepared for all these years. It occurred along a different fault line in the northeast. Now, geologists wonder if it loaded stress onto the fault line beneath Tokyo.
I’m not trying to yell “Fire!” in a crowded, traumatized city. Yet is Tokyo ready for the day we hope will never come? Here are five early lessons we can learn from the recent quake.
One, vigilance works. All those earthquake drills to which we Tokyoites were subjected over the last decade ― Bring your helmet! Don’t use the elevator! Climb under your desk! Watch the power lines! Stay calm! ― paid off. The stringent and costly architectural codes Corporate Japan complained about following the 1995 Kobe earthquake saved many a life.
Cynics thought it was all window dressing. A 2005 discovery that architect Hidetsugu Aneha falsified earthquake resistance data for hotels and condominiums seemed to buttress the point. Well, seismic standards work. And we can always do better. Improved tsunami preparedness, including better early-warning systems, higher seawalls and more education would help.
Two, expect the unexpected. When Tokyo Electric Power Co. opened the Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant 40 years ago, the facility was equipped for the worst-case scenario. Yet as we saw in other developed nations ― the U.S. in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina ― we humans tend to underestimate damage. Chalk it up to human nature; we consider it too dark and pessimistic to engage in serious what-if exercises where huge calamities are concerned. We rarely contemplate the unthinkable.
Well, what if the Tohoku quake was a foreshock that affected pressure on the Tokai fault line near Tokyo? It’s possible that it relieved pressure, which means we are now safer. The opposite reality would be devastating for Japan’s economy, given how much output is centered here. The folks at Z/Yen Group can consider Tokyo’s place in the world. Japanese know that their entire $5 trillion economy is essentially on, well, shaky ground.
Three, nuclear risks abound. That gets us to nuclear power stations, like Chubu Electric Power Co.’s Hamaoka plant, which may take quite a hit should the Tokai fault line become active. At the very minimum, Japan’s government needs to act quickly to retrofit nuclear plants to withstand ever-bigger quakes.
The Fukushima plant wasn’t a huge worry among seismologists. The same can’t be said of others. Japan needs protocols in place to shut plants that put the public at risk, no matter what it means for electricity. Among the things to avoid is putting backup diesel generators for nuclear facilities in the basement where they can be flooded by tsunamis.
Four, global markets are watching. The business of business returned in short order yesterday as Tepco shares rallied 16 percent. Buyers loaded up on the unscrupulous company spewing radiation into the skies amid signs of progress in stabilizing its reactors. So much for ethical investing.
Among those eyeing Japanese bargains is none other than billionaire Warren Buffett. He says Japan’s record quake is a buying opportunity.
The list of investment targets might include real estate, technology shares, construction companies, battered automakers, metal recyclers, waste managers, concrete producers, anything to do with clean energies like solar and wind, and nuclear-reactor suppliers like Toshiba Corp. It works both ways. If Prime Minister Naoto Kan doesn’t handle Japan’s dueling crises well, it will become a smaller blip on investors’ radar screens.
Five, economists don’t get it. Among the nuggets of conventional wisdom being tarnished this week is the resale value of beach-front property. Also, anyone in Japan living or working on structures placed atop reclaimed land might want to reconsider matters. They’re the first things that will turn to Jell-O if the next great quake unleashes tsunamis.
Economic convention will be challenged, too. Talk of a V-shaped Japanese rebound makes as much sense as the yen rallying, and it’s plagued by many “ifs.”
If aftershocks stop, if the nuclear crisis is resolved soon, if electricity disruptions cease, if radiation fears don’t kill exports, if households don’t save aggressively, if Japan suddenly learns to power cities without reactors then, sure, we can smile. To me, that’s a whole lot of uncertainty for a debt-ridden economy that shrank at an annualized 1.3 percent rate in the three months ended Dec. 31.
All of these “ifs” pale in comparison to the nagging risk that the Big One will one day shake Tokyo like never before. There’s no doubt Tokyo is a vital financial center, and Buffett is scouring it for investments. I just know that the tectonic plates below us don’t care.
By William Pesek
William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. ― Ed.
(Bloomberg)
