It is not an overstatement to say that the nation’s major political parties are exposed to the risk of disintegration ahead of the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for April. Such an argument is supported by an opinion poll recently conducted by the Munhwa Ilbo, a Seoul-based daily.
The survey shows that many of the traditional supporters of the conservative ruling Grand National Party and the liberal main opposition Democratic Party are ready to jump ship for a new alternative party.
Almost 41 percent of the respondents say they would support a new party in the April parliamentary elections if it is established by reform-minded figures such as Prof. Ahn Cheol-soo of Seoul National University. Those favoring a new liberal party include 53 percent of the people who say they have traditionally voted for the Democratic Party.
The GNP is no less discredited in the eyes of the electorate, with 44.1 percent of the respondents saying they would support a new conservative party. Another survey shows the ruling party is in deep trouble, with its approval rating at 40 percent. It is only slightly higher than that of a nonexistent party hypothetically led by Prof. Ahn and new Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, at 39.3 percent.
To the chagrin of the major parties, the shift in voter sentiment, which resulted in the election of Park, an independent social activist, as Seoul mayor last month, does not appear to be ephemeral. Instead, it is coming as a warning to the two major parties, which have failed to connect with the electorate that is demanding sweeping change in party politics. Only one in 20 voters believes he is represented by the parties.
The two parties are well aware that they need a drastic change to renew their connection with the electorate if they are to survive. They had a rude awakening when Park was elected Seoul mayor.
Prior to the election, it had hardly been conceivable that an independent would grab the post of mayor in the metropolis with a population of 10 million. But Park, a social activist trained in law, did indeed with the assistance of Prof. Ahn, formerly a medical doctor and a developer of computer virus vaccine programs. His election was a painful reminder that the parties would have to change or perish.
But to make the change is easier said than done. The devil is in the details.
The Democratic Party seeks a drastic change. It says it will merge with liberal groups ― politicians harboring the leftist ideological legacy of the late President Roh Moo-hyun, liberal advocacy groups and small progressive parties. Its leader, Rep. Sohn Hak-kyu, aims at integrating the diverse groups into a broad-based party by the end of this year.
Moon Jae-in, head of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation, and Mayor Park say that neither of them has a plan to create a separate party and that the Democratic Party will have to play a leading role in consolidating the opposition forces. But this concession comes with strings attached.
Those promoting an integration of the different groups, Moon says, must aim at more progressive reforms than those pursued by the previous two liberal administrations. To paraphrase his remarks, many of the incumbent lawmakers affiliated with the opposition party must be denied nomination for reelection and the electoral districts they carried in the previous elections must be set aside for the nomination of Roh’s former allies and leading civic advocates.
In the ruling party, a massive infusion of new blood and a drastic in-house reform are widely mentioned as a way out of the crisis. This method was tested and proven in 1995 when its predecessor, the Democratic Liberal Party, experienced a resounding defeat in local elections. It changed its name, retired 40 incumbent lawmakers and invited outside figures for nominations for the 1996 parliamentary elections. The measures were successful.
But none of the changes will help the parties overcome the crisis unless they assuage the anger of voters, who are frustrated with stagnant incomes, rising consumer prices and high housing costs. They demand to be convinced that they will be better off than now.
