오는 12~13일 양일에 걸쳐 서울에서 남북 당국 회담이 개최된다. 이는 2007년 이래로 처음 열리는 고위 회담으로, 최근 냉각된 남북 관계를 대화 모드로 역전시킬 기회다. 우리 정부는 회담을 통해 한반도 신뢰프로세스를 전개하고, 북측은 국제 대북 제재 완화를 촉구할 것으로 보인다.
하지만 남북은 회담 개최 직전까지 대표단 급을 두고 치열한 신경전을 벌이고 있다. 남측은 류길재 통일부 장관과 김양건 북한 노동단 통일선전부장이 참석하기 바랐으나, 북한이 ‘상급 당국자’를 주장하여 수석대표의 급이 불투명해졌다. 양측은 11일 오후 대표단 명단을 동시 교환하기로 합의했다.
의제도 합의하지 못해 난항을 겪을 전망이다. 우리 정부는 인도적 지원 등 상대적으로 합의를 도출하기 쉬운 의제부터 처리할 전망이다. 박근혜정부의 한반도 신뢰 프로세스에 의거해 접근이 용이한 영역부터 교류를 확장한 후, 과정에서 신뢰가 쌓이면 안보 등 민감한 사안을 논의하겠다는 취지이다.
하지만 북한은 이외에도 ‘6•15 및 7•4 발표일 공동기념문제, 민간내왕 및 접촉, 협력사업 추진 문제’ 등 포괄적인 의제를 포함시켰다. 공동기념 문제의 경우 국내 이데올로기 분열을 조장할 수 있어 꺼리고 있다.
한반도 비핵화의 경우, 회담 의제가 아니기 때문에 심도 있는 논의는 기대하기 어려울 것으로 보인다. 하지만 우리 정부는 북핵 불용 원칙을 내세워 북측에 비핵화를 촉구할 것으로 예상된다.
이와 관련, 조태영 외교부 대변인은 이날 “남북관계가 발전되려면 북한의 비핵화 문제에 진전이 있어야 한다”며 “우리 정부는 북한이 비핵화와 관련된 국제의무와 약속을 준수하는 행동으로 진정성을 보일 것을 지속적으로 촉구해 나갈 것”이라고 말했다.
따라서 회담의 초점은 개성공단 정상화에 맞춰질 것으로 보인다. 개성 공단은 북한이 지난 4월 남측 입경 금지를 일방적으로 선언함으로써 가동이 정지되었다. 하지만 장기화된 식량난 가운데 개성공단에서 안정적으로 들어오던 현찰 수입마저 막혀 북측도 어려운 상황에 처한 상황이다. 우리 정부는 북측에 향후 일방적으로 개성 공단을 중단하는 경우 법적 책임을 진다는 각서를 요구할 것으로 예상된다.
금강산 재개는 이보다 더 복잡한 의제다. 2008년 중지된 금강산 관광을 재개하려면 2010년 제정된 5.24조치를 해제해야 한다. 5.24 조치는 이명박 정부 시절 천안함 피격 사건의 책임을 물어 북한과의 교류 협력과 관련된 인적, 물적 자원 교류를 중단시킨 조치다.
일부 전문가에 의하면 북측 비핵화에 진전이 없는 현재, 5.24 조치를 해제할 명분은 미비하다고 주장한다. 5.24 조치 해제는 국제 대북 제제 결의에 역행하며, 비핵화 압력을 약화한다고 지적했다.
<관련 영어 기사>
Two Koreas face tough talks in Seoul
Seoul seeks to reset bilateral ties; Pyongyang to mitigate pressure over its nuclear program
By Song Sang-ho
The two Koreas face tough negotiations in their first high-level government talks since 2007 to begin in Seoul Wednesday.
The two-day meeting comes as South seeks to kick-start its trust-building drive while the North is striving to mitigate international pressure over its nuclear program.
Each five-member delegation will meet at the Grand Hilton Seoul hotel to discuss the resumption of the joint industrial park in Gaeseong, tours to Mount Geumgang and reunions of separated families, and other pending issues.
The North Korean side will travel to Seoul by land across the tense military demarcation line.
Although Seoul hopes to capitalize on the rare chance for dialogue to reset the bilateral ties strained by Pyongyang’s military adventurism, uncertainty still remains high over the outcome of the talks due to their gaps in perception over the issues.
Before the talks, the major bone of contention was who would lead each delegation.
Seoul initially planned to have its unification minister to lead its side, but decided to match the level of Pyongyang’s delegation chief as the North insisted it would not send a minister-level official. The two sides were to exchange the list of their delegates later in the day.
The Park Geun-hye government plans to approach lighter issues including humanitarian ones before moving onto tougher issues such as security as part of its step-by-step trust-building process.
But Pyongyang seeks to deal with a comprehensive range of issues including jointly hosting the events to mark the June 15 inter-Korean declaration signed in 2000 and the July 4th joint statement signed in 1972, and exchanging civilians.
During the talks, both sides might take caution over the issue of denuclearization -- the most critical issue for the bilateral relationship –- given that it is not the main agenda item. But Seoul is expected to reiterate its opposition to the North’s nuclear ambitions.
“For inter-Korean relations to develop, there should be progress on the denuclearization issue,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Cho Tai-young told reporters. “Our government will continue to urge the North to show sincerity by its decision to uphold international obligations and commitments with regard to denuclearization.”
The focus of the talks is expected to be reviving bilateral economic cooperation that has virtually ended after the suspension of the Gaeseong industrial complex in April. The so-called May 24 measures, put in place after the North’s torpedoing of the corvette Cheonan in March 2010, have seriously diminished bilateral cooperation.
For the cash-strapped North, reactivating the factory park is critical as it seeks to shore up the moribund economy and address chronic food shortages which could add to public anger over the fledgling Kim Jong-un regime.
The Gaeseong park was a vital source of hard foreign currency for the regime, which has been put under deeper international isolation following its nuclear test in February and long-range rocket launch in December.
Seoul is expected to demand Pyongyang sign a legally binding commitment to be held responsible should it unilaterally suspend the operation of the industrial park where 123 South Korean firms had run its labor-intensive factories.
The resumption of the tours to the mountain resort off the North’s east coast is a more complicated issue as Seoul has sought to secure Pyongyang’s guarantee to ensure the safety of tourists.
The tour program was halted after halted after a North Korean solider shot dead a South Korean tourist who strayed into an off-limits zone around the resort in July 2008.
Over the issue of jointly celebrating the landmark joint inter-Korean declarations, the two sides also remain at odds.
Pyongyang appears to prioritize those events as it believes the joint celebrations would be to uphold the late former leaders’ wishes. Some critics here argue the events could be utilized to fuel conflicts in an ideologically divided South Korea.
Attention is also being drawn to whether Seoul would lift the May 24 measures under which it imposed bans on South Koreans traveling to the North, inter-Korean trade, new investments in the North and North Korean ships operating in the South.
Experts said when there was no progress in the North’s denuclearization efforts, it would be burdensome for Seoul to lift these sanctions. Some argue the lifting of the measures would run counter to and weaken international sanctions to punish the North for its nuclear development.
(
sshluck@heraldcorp.com)
