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Zhang Tuosheng, an Academic Committee Member of Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University as well as the Senior Research Fellow at China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies |
The international community has been in an era in which “no one backs you up” since the Donald Trump’s period. During the Trump era, US-China relations fell into a double trap of Thucydides and Kindleberger. Many in the international community believe that the international order has already entered the New Cold War between the US and China. Are we really in the New Cold War? Has the international order changed, or is it still changing? While the Cold War between the US and Soviet Union was apparently an ideological and military confrontation, US-China relations are politically and economically intertwined. It is not yet a conflict between civilizations, but a conflict of national interests and mutual distrust, therefore, we are more cautious about making any hasty judgments. China has not declared today as a New Cold War, although it says the current international order is becoming more unstable and indescribable due to US’ unilateralism. Last week there was an important 20th Party Congress in China. There are many discussions on the direction and policy of Xi Jinping’s third-term diplomacy. How does China view the current international order and the regional order? What kind of diplomacy will Xi Jinping’s third term show in the future? It might be too early to judge, but predicting in advance is a must for the peace and development of the region in which we live. For a deeper discussion, this week’s discussion invites authoritative strategy analyst Zhang Tuosheng. With military background, he is an Academic Committee Member of Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University as well as the Senior Research Fellow at China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies.
Hwang: How can we evaluate the international order in this the post-Cold War period?
Zhang: The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of the Cold War frame of the US-Soviet Union’s struggle over the hegemony, and the world entered a post-Cold War era. As a key feature of this new era, the trend of globalization, multipolarization, and informationization has accelerated, and peaceful development has become the main flow in the world. This great change in the international situation was most pronounced in the first two decades after the end of the Cold War. First of all, the acceleration of globalization and the interdependence of countries have been greatly strengthened. At that time, the World Trade Organization, various regional free trade zones, and multilateral economic cooperation organizations were established and developed one after another, and multilateral security cooperation dialogue in regions with different characteristics of military alliances was rapidly promoted as well. The development of global multipolarization is also evident, and major powers such as the US, Europe, Japan, China, and Russia have built some kind of a pattern. Many developing countries are entering the ranks of the strong powers, and their relationship shows a state of mutually coordinating cooperation and mutually constraining protection. As for the advancement of information technology, the Internet, mobile phones, and mobile computers, it has developed rapidly in the past years. The development of information technology has played an important role in promoting the development of globalization and multipolarization.
Hwang: It has already has been 30 years since the end of the Cold War this year. We all seem to be facing a variety of changes since the end of the Cold War.
Zhang: A number of disputes over ethnic, religious, territorial, and maritime rights that were overshadowed by the Cold War began to emerge, and became more pronounced by the so-called “human rights wars” conducted by the US and some Western countries, and the global anti-terrorism wars under the US. The end of the Cold War has taken mankind a big step forward, but it shows that it is still far from establishing a complete international political and economic order. Entering the 30th year of the post-Cold War era, three major events followed, including the global economic crisis caused by US financial instability, serious political instability in some countries in the Middle East and North Africa, and the US declaration of a pivot to the Asia-Pacific and implementation of its Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy.
Hwang: The international circumstance has changed significantly in the past few years since the outbreak of COVID19.
Zhang: First of all, the negative aspects of globalization have emerged rapidly due to the deterioration of governments around the world. The widening gap between the rich and the poor within the country, the imbalance in national development, the emergence of large-scale immigration, the deepening damages from international epidemics, growing transnational crimes, and the spread of WMD have intensively exploded. The environmental pollution and global climate change are also related to the above. As a result, the emergence of a counter-globalization trend, populism, protectionism, and unilateralism has prevailed in recent years, and pandemics in the last three years have exacerbated these trends of risks. Secondly, I would say there is multipolarization. As multipolarization develops, strong powers are facing a critical change in power and the geopolitical competition of the powers resumed. Therefore, the relationship between the strong powers has entered a period of high friction. In particular, the US-Russia and the US-China competition is the most prominent. Third, a rapid development of digitalization and technology has greatly promoted socio-economic development over the past 30 years, and the digital economy has become the most popular term in recent years. However, this development has also created a digital divide, driving polarization in international community and between countries. The development related to these trends has also brought growing uncertainty in recent years, due to the apparent logjam of relevant international laws and regulations. Information wars, cyber wars, and space wars have already become new topics in our world. Lastly, the existing international order is tending to falter and fall apart. Currently, Russia is openly proposing to completely change the existing international order. China has emphasized maintaining the international order based on international law, with the UN at the center, while the US and Western countries adhere to what they call a "rules-based international order." There is no longer a perception among countries that the international order that has been around since the end of the Cold War will continue.
Hwang: Since the end of the Cold War, the Asia-Pacific has become the region that has the highest possibility of development. What changes have there been in the Asia-Pacific regional order during the last post-Cold War period?
Zhang: Firstly, the objectives and principles of the United Nations Charter and the major international agreements were relatively well followed and implemented. Therefore, the Asia-Pacific region could maintain peace and security. Although there are still many security issues in the region, most have been well-controlled and we could avoid serious military conflicts and wars. Secondly, multilateral dialogue and cooperation organizations, other than military alliances, have been established and developed relatively quickly in this region. There are about a dozen multilateral cooperation forums that Chinese governments is participating in: The China-ASEAN Dialogue Cooperation, APEC, ASEAN Plus Three, Six-Party Talks, Korea-China-Japan Cooperation, East Asia Summit, ASEAN Forum, ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Shangri-La Dialogue and the Beijing Xiangshan Forum. Thirdly, partnerships have been universally established to conduct comprehensive dialogue and cooperation in the political, economic, military, humanities, and other aspects of the region. The regional relationships between the countries are relatively balanced and stable. Fourth, many multilateral and bilateral free trade zones have been settled, and each country’s economic interdependence has been greatly strengthened. Fifth, non-traditional security cooperation in the region has developed significantly, and lastly, as an emerging power, China has also begun to provide public goods to the region. For instance, China is promoting interconnection of the countries along the line through the Belt Road Initiative and is effectively building regional infrastructure through the establishment of the AIIB.
Hwang: What are the greatest challenges that the regional order of Asia-Pacific is facing today?
Zhang: Actually the imbalance in countries relations is getting quite serious. The US and Japan are forming an all-out confrontation with Russia, US-China relations have deteriorated seriously, and China-Japan relations have also retreated significantly. India has become an attractive target for the US and Japan. Even after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the US accepted China as its main strategic rival and its most severe and long-term challenge. It is pressuring the Indo-Pacific, keeping China’s key battlefields in check, attempting strategic competition with China in politics, the economy, military, ideology, and other fields. For this reason, the US does not hesitate to pressure China by partially, or sometimes fully, excluding China from the economic and scientific areas, which will eventually bring major shocks and damages to the regional industrial chains, value chains and supply chains.
Hwang: How is America’s national strategy changing?
Zhang: The US declaration of its pivot to the Asia-Pacific is an important sign that geopolitical competition among the powers that have disappeared since the end of the Cold War will return to the world stage. By the time President Obama’s second term began, friction between China and the US had escalated across the board, and President Trump’s election in 2017 was a turning point in the post-Cold War era. Since his inauguration, he has implemented America First, unilateralist, and protectionist policies, clearly designated China and Russia as strategic competitors, and has recognized China as the major strategic competitor. Trump’s policies are the reaction to globalization, multipolarization, and informatization, and have brought major shocks and challenges to the world's peace development. Although some modifications and adjustments have been made to Trump’s policies since Biden was elected in 2021, he basically continued Trump’s economic and security policies, and further raised the confrontation between democracy and dictatorship, leading the world to a bipolar confrontation with an intensified ideology.
Hwang: Please share some diplomatic examples with us.
Zhang: The geopolitical strategic competition between the great powers shows that not only does it cause a heated war in Europe, but it has also reached a dangerous point in bringing the Cold War to an all-out resurgence in Europe. In August, the House Speaker Pelosi openly violated the One China Principle and visited Taiwan, causing a serious crisis in the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, the Korean Peninsula is pregnant with a new nuclear crisis, and the possibility of military conflict or a cold war in Northeast Asia under the new international situation should never be underestimated.
Hwang: Can you tell us in detail from the aspects of security and military?
Zhang: The multi-faceted economic security dialogue and cooperation organizations, the ones that were established after the end of the Cold War, have been devastated by US’s massive military build-up including Five Eyes, QUAD, AUKUS, exclusive Indo-Pacific economic partnership, and Chip 4 alliance. Partially, the regional dialogues and cooperation are even tied up and are making no progress at all. Due to the difficult situations, some are in tight position to reach an agreement, and some are even put under a risk being suspended. Additionally, conflict zones are overheating, crises and the possibility of military conflict are growing, and regional peace and security are threatened. One of the most prominent issues in East Asia today is the Taiwan strait and the second one is the Korean Peninsula. Not long ago, there was a serious crisis in the Taiwan Sea and in the case of the Korean Peninsula, the deterioration of US-China-Russia relations has significantly weakened international cooperation in denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, facing the risk of a new nuclear crisis. The strategic stability in the region is also facing serious challenges. In addition, the arms race has already been repeated in the region. Many countries in this region are standing in front of an enormous pressure from the US to choose their border areas. Governance in this region and non-traditional security cooperation between countries have been seriously disrupted accordingly.
Hwang: How do you foresee China’s foreign policy?
Zhang: According to the report of the 20th Party Congress, China’s foreign policy can be interpreted like the following compared to the 19th Party Congress report. Firstly, I would emphasize the continuity of China’s foreign policy. China does not seek hegemony or promote competition with the US, and stresses the continuity of its diplomatic stance, such as peaceful coexistence, cooperative development of relations, and mutual respect. The second aspect is that although China did not particularly mention the US, but in fact, it implies that the security challenges coming from the US have intensified. According to the National Security Strategy, announced by the White House recently, China was described as a country with the capability that can put everything into the competition with the US. Nevertheless, China still hopes to stabilize US-China relations through dialogue mechanisms and crisis management rather than confrontation. We do not want a new Cold War, and it would be nice to hold a US-China Summit during the upcoming G-20 Summit to discuss further about it.
Hwang: What can countries in the region do with regard to the great changes in the international circumstances and serious challenges to the Asia-Pacific region?
Zhang: Although there are serious challenges to the international circumstances and the regional order, we should not take it in too pessimistic perspective. We must work together to overcome the depression and uncertainty of globalization, multipolarization, and informatization by strengthening global and regional governance. This should further ensure that the new Asia-Pacific order formed during the post-Cold War era can be integrated and led to new developments, so that the elements of the above fields can be exercised and the world’s peaceful development flow can be maintained. Today’s great flow will pass us in the end. In recent years, we had the establishment and development of CPTPP and RCEP, the expansion of SCO, the continuation of ASEAN+ dialogue cooperation in this region. Furthermore, China is absorbed in promoting its relations with the US in terms of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and mutual benefit, while the China-US, China-Korea economic and trade cooperation is developing at the same time. Most of the countries in the region do not want to be placed in a situation where they have to stand by either the US or China. Moreover, the recent crisis in the Taiwan Strait could have been eventually managed without such tragedy as the Russia-Ukraine War. This is what we can call the hope is.
Hwang Jae-ho is a professor of the Division of International Studies at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. He is also the director of the Institute for Global Strategy and Cooperation and a current member of the Presidential Committee on Policy and Planning. This discussion was assisted by researchers Ko Sung-hwah and Shin Eui-chan.
