Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Charles Evans said he favors holding the federal funds rate near zero until the first quarter of 2016 to ensure that the economy is able to withstand higher borrowing costs.
“Under appropriate policy, and with a quite good economic outlook, I still only have inflation slowly coming up to our inflation objective,” Evans, who will have a vote next year on the Federal Open Market Committee, told reporters Monday after a speech to economists in Chicago. “So appropriate policy being in that regard has a liftoff in the first quarter of 2016.”
The projection makes Evans one of the two most dovish Fed officials, according to quarterly projections released Sept. 17 after the last FOMC meeting. Two participants said the appropriate timing of policy firming would be 2016, while 14 said next year and one said this year. Policy makers have held the rate near zero since December 2008.
Evans and other Fed officials are urging patience before tightening policy, even as the jobless rate has fallen to match an almost six-year low of 6.1 percent. The FOMC this month retained its pledge to keep rates low for a “considerable time” after it concludes its two-year asset purchase program next month.
Evans said earlier Monday that while the first interest-rate increase from near zero could happen in mid-2015, he favors waiting to be sure the economy is stronger and inflation will be near the central bank’s 2 percent objective.
“June is a possibility,” Evans said in a CNBC interview. “I want to be sure we get inflation up to 2 percent.” Asked if he could see going “beyond the summer” next year, Evans said, “I certainly could, that’s right.”
The Fed for months has assured investors that rates will be held near zero after it completes asset purchases, which are on schedule to end after the next FOMC meeting on Oct. 28-29. “We expect asset purchases will end at our next meeting,” Evans said. “So we’re going to have to have that language evolve. However, I’m not unhappy with the current posturing of that type of forward guidance.” (Bloomberg)
