In the year leading up to the general election, the New Frontier Party (Saenuri Party) faced an important decision. Party support was flagging and the issue of the redistribution of wealth solidified as the second most important issue to the nation behind job creation, according to the monthly public opinion polls conducted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Traditionally, the NFP has hung its hat on the economy and security, and while the NFP has always been seen as competent on the economy, the importance of national security declined rapidly throughout 2011. However, moving toward issues dealing with welfare was a gamble.
Doing so risked abandoning what is traditionally assumed to be its base -- South Koreans in their 50s and 60s. But with the role that welfare issues played in the defeat of the NFP candidate in the Seoul mayoral by-election, the NFP had little choice but to begin to seriously address this issue. This move to the left has been criticized both from outside and inside the party, and has been labeled wholesale political pandering by many. However, this criticism is not wholly warranted as it is based on a traditional idea of who the supporters of the NFP are and a false assumption of the issues they care about.
One of the assumptions about the NFP’s base -- their age -- is indeed correct. According to the Asan Institute’s March public opinion survey, 35 percent of those in their 50s and 42 percent of those in their 60s support the NFP, large pluralities for both age groups. Support for the NFP falls off significantly among those in their 20s (22 percent), 30s (18 percent) and 40s (25 percent).
However, the statement that NFP supporters care about the economy and national security only tells half of the story. Among all South Koreans, 41 percent cite job creation as the single most important issue facing the nation --a clear plurality. A distant second is the issue of redistribution with 25 percent. Growing interest in redistribution is driven by those in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, but South Koreans in their 50s also care deeply about this issue.
Among South Koreans in their sixties, 44 percent cite job creation as the nation’s most important issue, 17 percent cite North-South relations, followed by 13 percent citing redistribution. This age group does indeed fall into the traditional conception of the NFP base. However, those in their 50s do not follow suit. While the number that cite job creation is equal to that in their 60s, only 12 percent cite North-South relations, while 22 percent cite redistribution. And this is not a one month anomaly for those in their 50s -- these numbers have been consistent over the past eleven months. Clearly, South Koreans in their 50s, and who make up a significant portion of the NFP base, do not follow traditional assumptions.
While we do not know if the NFP realized that moving left would address the concerns of its supporters in their 50s, the platform shift should not simply be seen as political pandering before an election. The party’s updated platform realigns it with a significant portion of its base. Moreover, 10 years from now, those who are in their 40s will be in their 50s. This cohort has strong feelings on redistribution according Asan’s survey data, and if the NFP is to continue to build its base, it needs to prepare for a longer-term shift to the left. These voters may take on some conservative views, but it is doubtful that they will relinquish their interest in redistribution. The NFP’s change in policy aims to better represent a wider swath of its current supporters as well as to court its future supporters in light of demographic trends.
Moreover, rather than ceding the issue of redistribution to the progressive parties, along with a large amount of votes, the NFP has decided to do battle on this issue. And why not? South Koreans in their 60s have no other viable conservative party for which to vote. While this group voiced doubts in previous months, with support bottoming out in December at 30 percent, support among this cohort is now higher (58 percent) than at any time since Asan began tracking the number in January 2011. South Koreans in their 60s have indeed come home to the NFP.
While the NFP strategy has failed to attract support from those in their 30s, and performed only marginally well with those in their 40s, it seems to be paying dividends for the party among those in their 20s. Among those in this age group that cite redistribution as the issue most important to the nation (27 percent) there has been a huge increase in support for the NFP. In January, 12 percent of this cohort supported the NFP while triple that number (36 percent) supported the DUP. However, the NFP has been able to win a huge majority of those who were previously undecided among this cohort, and by March the gap had narrowed to just 5 percent, with 29 percent supporting the NFP and 34 percent supporting the DUP.
A more nuanced view of the NFP strategy is needed in the face of the upcoming elections. As recently as December the party had hit rock bottom with overall support falling below 20 percent for the first time since the Asan Institute began polling. Since that time, the new leadership has righted the ship, and overall support among those in their 60s, 50s, and 20s stand at highs for the last 15 months. Support among those in their 40s is at its second highest point. What once seemed like a lost election is suddenly a race again. This may be due in part to missteps by the DUP, but the NFP’s shift should not be discounted. Shifting its platform to address an issue that is of interest both to the youth of South Korea and to a large swath of the party’s base has paid off.
By Karl Friedhoff
Karl Friedhoff is a program officer in the Public Opinion Studies Program at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. The views here are his own and do not necessarily represent the Asan Institute. -- Ed.
