This week is a crucial week for North Korea and its young leader, Kim Jong-un. Amid global outcry, the impoverished country is ready to launch a long-range rocket to mark the April 15 centennial of the birth of Kim Il-sung, its founder and the grandfather of the 20-something leader.
Underlying the planned rocket launch is the paranoid regime’s desire to demonstrate to the outside world as well as its disgruntled people that it has attained its long-cherished dream of becoming a “strong and prosperous” country.
A successful rocket blastoff could be vaunted as a symbol of military strength as it implies that the belligerent regime can now hit its arch enemy ― the United States ― with its missiles.
The pariah state would be able to blackmail the world’s most powerful country if it acquires the ability to build a small nuclear warhead that can be put on a long-range missile. To hone its technology to miniaturize an atomic bomb, the North is reportedly planning to conduct another nuclear weapons test.
Pyongyang’s rocket launch, slated to take place by Monday, is rightly met with international condemnation, as it is basically a ballistic missile test, which is banned under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874. Yet it brazenly asserts that the launch is intended to put a satellite into orbit.
The rogue regime is pushing for the launch for another reason ― to declare the beginning of a new era following the death in December of Kim Jong-il. A series of high-profile political events are under way in Pyongyang to complete the transfer of power to the new leader and proclaim the start of his era.
Kim Jong-un became vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party in 2010. This week, he is expected to assume the top posts held by his father ― the commission’s chairman, general secretary of the Workers’ Party, and chairman of the National Defense Commission.
If the young leader ascends to these posts as expected, a comparison with his father is inevitable. Following the death of Kim Il-sung in 1994, Kim Jong-il had a three-year mourning period before inheriting the leadership titles held by his father.
For Kim Jong-un, the mourning period was a mere 100 days. The hurried completion of the succession process is obviously intended to stabilize his leadership as early as possible. Yet this is also a telltale sign that the inexperienced leader’s power base is still shaky.
In this regard, it is noteworthy that, following the North’s announcement in March of the rocket launch plan, some Pyongyang watchers cautiously broached the possibility of a power struggle among key players around the new leader.
The theory surfaced as the North breached its Feb. 29 agreement with the United States even before the ink was dry. To reach a deal with Washington, Pyongyang promised to put a moratorium on long-range missile launches, nuclear tests and uranium enrichment. In return, it was supposed to receive 240,000 tons of food aid.
The North’s bizarre behavior is difficult to explain without imagining a power struggle between two groups, with one prioritizing dialog with Washington and feeding the country’s starving people and the other putting military strength before anything else.
At the moment, it is difficult to tell whether this explanation is valid or not. But if the leap day deal had been scuttled by hard-liners, it carries deep implications. For one thing, we will have to brace for a third nuclear weapons test. At the same time, we need to prepare ourselves for contingencies resulting from a free-for-all scramble for power.
The benighted leaders in Pyongyang who insisted on launching a rocket might have thought that the already isolated regime had not much to lose even if the U.N. Security Council would resolve to punish it for violating its resolution, which was adopted in 2009.
The council is unlikely to come up with any punitive measures with teeth, given China’s lukewarm attitude toward punishing its traditional ally.
Yet the rocket launch will mean another blown opportunity for the destitute regime to be brought in from the cold. Defining the launch as a provocation, the U.S. and its allies have made it clear they would take “appropriate action” against the North. Washington said it would cancel the promised supply of nutritional aid.
Thus, it remains to be seen whether the launch will signal the onset of a new era for the bankrupt regime or the beginning of its collapse.
