We are approaching a dangerous precipice in South and North Korea relations. The North says that it is preparing for “special actions” to take place. There should always be a degree of skepticism, but in lieu of their failed rocket launch and Kim Jong-un’s rise to power, most likely there will be yet another provocative and aggressive action.
Yet, another aggressive action is not so insignificant this time. Many South Koreans who live in Seoul, not far from certain destruction if a war were to suddenly break out, seem to repress this thought in their daily preoccupied lives. However, I think the likelihood of a de facto devastating war is getting closer and closer every day.
The border between the Koreas is the most heavily armed border in the world. If a leader decides to fire, then events would precipitate quite fast and there would be certain and sudden devastation. There is nothing that could subvert this possibility if a war broke out. The amount of losses would be incredible and about 60 years of building would be ruined.
It would also bring instability to Asia on the whole. What if China intervenes? This has been pretty much an historical certainty.
Thus, it is of great importance that an all-out war does not happen. Once guns start blazing, it is likely that Seoul will be on the table to be attacked by the North. Even though it is not something they may really want to destroy, but simply because it is here to be destroyed. The loss of life and horrors of war would yet again become a brute reality. Fortunately, this can be avoided.
Why is war eminent? The border is the most heavily armed in the world. There has been a shift in power in North Korea which is presently being tested. The North has already committed actions that would constitute a casus belli by any traditional definition. They have sunk a war ship (the Cheonan) and fired directly on South Korean land (on Yeonpyeong Island). The president and the leadership were criticized due to their response to each of these acts of war. Now, the president appears to be determined to respond in an effective way if any new developments of the same magnitude arise. (In any case, how could he not?) How could he get reelected if he didn’t act? It would seem cowardly. Protecting the sovereignty of South Korea and its citizenry is paramount. Another provocation by the North would set a dangerous precedent if it were not responded to in a proportional way. Of course, many might think that another conflagration that may abrupt would end in a brief reprisal but then die down as it has from past experiences with the North. However, it would seem this is not going to be the case.
Like the triple entente before World War I, the North, like Germany, is feeling more and more isolated by the surrounding powers, and thereby, is progressively becoming more and more daring. (First, attacking a ship then attacking an island.) Also, like World War I, the reason for building up arms is for using them. This might seem a trivial thing to point out, but it is a fact. The North and South have built up a huge stockpile of arms. After sitting on and advancing arms for decades, the leadership of each country will be more and more inclined to use them.
War was pretty much destined to break out for Germany due to isolation and the build-up of arms which the leadership sought to use. They pretty much invented the casus belli in order to use the arms they had been/were acquiring. For North Korea, and to some extent, South Korea to seek to use the arms they have acquired.
Now the proverbial red button that lies before the leadership of both countries has never been bigger or brighter. However, once those buttons are pushed and a number of weapons are triggered, it will not seem like much of choice to go to war to the respective leaders anymore. The war would escalate and no one could in the immediate future undo what would be started.
Thus, it is paramount that some of history is not repeated and this does not happen. It will take cautious planning and diplomatic maneuvering. I think it can be done as we have seen the Cold War between Russia and the United States was deflated before unleashing a massive stockpile of weaponry (although those countries were in very different circumstances, like distance for one.) But, as of right now, the situation is at a crossroads on the verge of sudden yet necessarily avoidable escalation.
Thus, it must be stressed, for the leadership to be responsible. This involves not having an itchy trigger finger even with popular pressure because while defense should be strong and vigilant, it should be rationally determined for the better of South Korea and the world.
By Taylor Hall
Taylor Hall is a resident in Seoul. ― Ed.
