계속되는 북한의 위협에 따라, 동북아 3국 -- 한국, 일본, 중국 -- 의 부도위험이 상승하고 있다.
북한과 가장 근접한 한국의 국채 신용부도스와프(CDS) 프리미엄은 지난 달 7일, 유엔 안전보장이사회가 북한의 핵실험을 강력히 규제한 후로부터 24.26bp 상승하여 87.90bp로 집계됐다. 이는 동북아시아의 3국 중 가장 큰 상승이다.
CDS 프리미엄은 채권을 발행한 기업이나 국가가 부도났을 시, 손실에 대한 보상을 해주는 일종의 가산금리로, 높아질수록 부도위험이 높아진다.
중국의 경우, 북한과 가장 가까운 동맹국임에도 불구하고, 같은 기간 동안 CDS 프리미엄은 12.34bp 상승하여, 74.53bp로 집계됐다고 슈퍼디리버티브즈(SuperDerivatives), 국제 파생상품 전문기업이 밝혔다.
세계 3대 경제대국이자 미국의 가장 강력한 동맹인 일본의 경우, CDS 프리미엄은 12.07bp에서 75.07bp로 상승했다.
“북한의 전례 없는 공격적인 리더십이 지정학적인 리스크를 발생시킨다,”고 무디스 인베스터스 서비스사가 밝혔으며 "하지만, 새로운 박근혜정부에 대한 낙관론과, 최근 미국과의 강력한 동맹 관계는 이러한 지정학적 리스크를 상쇄시키고 있다," 라며 낙관적인 태도를 보였다.
신한금융투자 연구원 한범호는 “북한이 과거와 달리 행동하고 있으며 중국의 대북억제력이 의심되고 있기 때문에 투자자들이 더 민감하게 반응하고 있다,”고 말했다.
북한 위협에 대한 불안감은 고조되고 있지만, 2000년대 초반과 달리 국내 회사들의 경제적 기반이 더 강화됐기 때문에 KOSPI 지수는 1900에서 유지될 것이라고 예상했다. (코리아 헤럴드)
<관련 영문 기사>
Sovereign risks of Northeast Asia grow on N.K. threats
By Park Hyong-ki
Sovereign risks of Northeast Asian economies -- South Korea, Japan and China -- are increasing as North Korea ratchets up its threats against the allied forces of South Korea and the U.S.
This heightened regional tension may further drive local stocks and currency to spiral downward going forward as North Korea’s unpredictable bellicose action is undermining investors’ sentiment, analysts said.
South Korea, given its closest proximity to the North, has seen its sovereign risk on state bonds measured by credit default swap premium, or the CDS premium, rise the highest among the Northeast Asian countries by 24.26 basis points to 87.90bp over the last month since the U.N. Security Council imposed tougher sanctions on the communist state on March 7 over its nuclear weapons test.
The premium is a gauge of the sovereign risk of countries.
The CDS premium risk of China, the closest North Korean ally which has called for dialogue in resolving the tension despite the North’s nonchalance, increased by 12.34bp to 74.53bp in the same period, according to SuperDerivatives, a global derivatives data service provider.
Japan’s sovereign risk on its state bonds shot up 12.07bp to 75.07bp as the world’s third largest economy, also a strong ally of the U.S., is within the range of the North’s long-range ballistic missiles.
Analysts said that South Korea’s fundamentals remain intact to buffer volatility, but the sharp rise in CDS premium on escalating geopolitical tension still raises concern.
“Geopolitical uncertainty on the peninsula and in the region is arising from the dynastic change in Pyongyang that has resulted in the inexperienced but bellicose leadership (of 30-something Kim Jong-un),” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.
“During this ongoing episode of heightened tensions, optimism over the new Park Geun-Hye administration’s economic policies evidently surpasses fears over Pyongyang’s saber rattling.”
The incumbent administration has recently unveiled a set of economic measures to revitalize the sluggish job and real estate markets through proposed tax cuts and deregulation.
Moody’s added that the strong alliance between South Korea and the U.S., which recently mobilized stealth fighters and advanced radars following the detection of the North positioning its missile launchers on its east coast, would offset geopolitical risk.
The North’s unprecedented level of threats has further increased investors’
sensitivity to the regional tension, said Han Beom-ho, an analyst at Shinhan Investment.
China’s numerous calls to tame the North also had limited effect, with a grim outlook for a political compromise over the matter.
Han expects the benchmark KOSPI to remain steadfast above 1,900 points backed by stronger fundamentals of domestic companies compared to the early 2000s.
(
hkp@heraldcorp.com)
