미국이 대내외 과제가 산적한 가운데 남북한 긴장 상태를 소강하기 위해 발벗고 나섰다.
존 케리 미국 국무장관은 12일 취임 후 처음으로 한•중•일 동북아 3국을 순방하며 ‘대화를 통한 대북 관계 개선’과 ‘중국의 공조’를 재차 강조했다. 전문가들은 이러한 미국의 행보를 남북간 대치가 동아시아로 확산되지 않도록 방지하는 전략으로 해석하며, 미국 내 문제 때문에 더 적극적인 대북 정책에 나섰다고 풀이했다.
케리 장관은 12일 한국을 방문해 “오바마 대통령은 일부 군사 훈련을 보류했다. 또한 대북 발언 수위도 상당히 낮추었다고 생각하며, 이성을 통해 현 상황을 타개하길 바란다”고 밝혔다.
이 맥락에서 미국은 앞서 4월 초 계획된 대륙간탄도미사일 성능시험 발사를 다음달로 연기한 바 있다. 이에 관해 미 국방부 관계자는 “한반도의 긴장 상황을 감안해 도발 구실을 제공할 수 있는 조치들은 피하는 게 현명하다”고 밝혔다.
또한, 케리 장관은 13일(현지시간) 베이징에서 양제츠 외교담당 국무위원을 만난 후 기자 간담회을 통해 “만약 위협(북한 비핵화)이 사라진다면 우리로서도 강화된 방어자세를 그 시점에 갖춰야할 긴급성이 존재하지 않게 된다”며 동아시아에 배치된 미사일 방어망(MD)을 축소할 용의가 있음을 시사했다.
미국은 최근 연이은 북한 도발 위협에 대응하기 위해 동아시아 군사력을 증강하였고, 이는 중국과 러시아에 적잖은 부담을 미친 것으로 알려졌다. 이런 상황에서 케리 장관의 제안은 북한문제 해결을 위해 중국의 보다 큰 협력을 이끌어내려는 회유책으로 보이며, 중국이 이를 받아들여 대북 영향력을 확대할지에 초점을 맞춰져 있다.
한편, 한 안보 전문가는 미국이 ‘무력 시위’ 전략을 잠시 중단하고 대북 수위를 조절하는 것으로 설명했다. “미국은 이미 군사력을 충분히 과시했기 때문에, 더 이상 북한을 자극할 필요가 없다고 여길 것이다. 대북 정책 강도를 하향 조절한 셈이다.”
전문가들은 미국 내 난해한 사안들이 산적한 만큼, 전략적 요충지인 한반도가 안정적인 상태를 유지하길 바랄 것이라고 예상한다. 미국은 현재 연방정부예산 자동삭감과 총기 규제, 이민법 개정 등 여러 민감한 사항에 직면해 있다. 그만큼 국제 사항에 눈을 돌릴 여유가 없다는 의미이다.
중국도 마찬가지로 북한이 더 이상 도발 위협을 전개하는 것을 바라지 않는다. 이에 서울대학교 국제학 대학원의 신성호 교수는 “중국은 미국과 마찬가지로 한반도에서 전쟁이 발발하지 않기 원한다”며 “미국은 북한을 핵 보유국으로 인정할 생각이 없지만, 전면전 없이 북핵 프로그램을 강제로 종료시킬 방법은 없다. 따라서(중국과 협력을 통해) 북한의 도발을 억제하는 동시 핵 개발을 방지하려는 접근이다”고 밝혔다.
미국이 북한을 억제하기 위해 중국과 긴밀하게 공조함에 따라 일각에선 한국의 대북 전략적 영향력이 축소될 것을 우려하는 목소리가 나오고 있다. 전문가들은 다국적 대북 협력 체제에서 한국의 입지를 확보하기 위해 북한과 협상할 능력을 재고해야 한다고 강조했다.
(코리아 헤럴드 송상호 기자/번역 이상주)
<관련 영어 기사>
U.S. steps up diplomacy to calm N.K.
By Song Sang-ho
The U.S. is ratcheting up diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions on the Korean Peninsula, even hinting at a concession to China on missile defense, as North Korea’s brinkmanship adds to Washington’s already daunting international and domestic challenges.
During his tour of South Korea and China last week, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called for dialogue with Pyongyang and apparently urged Beijing to do more to rein in its ally. He indicated the U.S. is willing to scale down missile defense if the security threat in the region eased.
Experts said the U.S. was seeking to prevent peninsula tensions from escalating into a greater security crisis. Some argued America’s domestic problems might have forced Washington to avoid an escalation of the stalemate.
“President Obama ordered a number of exercises not to be undertaken. I think we have lowered our rhetoric significantly, and we are attempting to find a way for reasonableness to prevail here,” Kerry said during a press conference in Seoul on Friday.
His remarks came about a week after the U.S. put off its plan to conduct an intercontinental ballistic missile test at its air force base in California out of concerns the Minuteman III test could further escalate tension with the Stalinist state.
During his stop in China, Kerry went further, indicating that should North Korea renounce its nuclear programs, the U.S. would reduce its newly beefed-up missile defense systems that China and Russia have apparently felt uneasy about.
“Now obviously if the threat disappears -- i.e. North Korea denuclearizes -- the same imperative does not exist at that point of time for us to have that kind of robust forward leaning posture of defense,” Kerry said in a news conference in Beijing. “It would be our hope in the long run, or better yet in the short run, that we can address that.”
Analysts said the offer of a missile defense concession appeared aimed at adding more pressure on China, the North’s only major ally and patron, to exert more influence on its recalcitrant neighbor to change its current provocative course.
The U.S. has recently unveiled its plans to deploy a land-based “terminal high-altitude area defense system” to Guam as a “precautionary” move and to strengthen missile defense against the North by installing 14 additional ground-based interceptors at its bases in Alaska and California by 2017.
Seen preparing to test its intermediate-range Musudan ballistic missile, the North has threatened to strike U.S. bases in South Korea, Japan and Guam. The missile in question with a range beyond 3,000 km is known to be capable of reaching Guam.
A security expert said the U.S. appeared to be “controlling its speed” in handling the provocative North after it showed off its deterrence capabilities by mobilizing most of its nuclear capable strategic assets such as B-2 stealth bombers and a nuclear-powered submarine.
“After showing off all that, Washington might think it no longer needs to do anything that would further escalate tension. The U.S. appears to be controlling its policy tempo in handling the North,” he said, declining to be named.
Kwon Tae-young, adviser to the non-profit Korea Research Institute for Strategy, said Kerry communicated a message to China to step up coordinated efforts as escalated tension would not serve anyone’s national interest.
“As the North threatened to turn Washington and Guam into a sea of flames, it cannot help but step up its missile defense, which apparently posed a headache for China and Russia,” he said.
“Kerry signaled should such threats disappear, the U.S. would scale down its military presence.”
Given a series of domestic issues facing the second-term Barack Obama administration, Washington might want to avoid any instability on the strategically crucial Korean Peninsula, particularly after a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, analysts pointed out.
In addition to the across-the-board federal spending cuts, or sequestration that went into force last Month, the Washington government faces a host of politically sensitive domestic issues such as immigration reform, and gun ownership and control, not to mention global security conundrums such as Iran-related issues.
Whatever the reasons behind the efforts to calm tension here might be, Washington’s moves to step up cooperation with China comes as Beijing itself does not want to see its wayward neighbor continue to make trouble.
“Basically, both the U.S. and China do not want another war on the peninsula. What matters for both is the nuclear issue surrounding the North, which has clarified it will not abandon its nuclear program,” said Sheen Seong-ho from the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University.
“The U.S. stance is that it would not recognize the North as a nuclear power, but in realistic terms, without a war, it would be difficult for it to dismantle the North’s nuclear program. So it wants to prevent the North’s nuclear proliferation while taking measures to deter its provocations.”
With the U.S. moving to increase cooperation with China in pressuring the North, some observers said Seoul might need to caution against losing “its strategic influence” over Pyongyang.
Amid worsening cross-border ties, inter-Korean dialogue channels have been shut down with the fate of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex now hanging in the balance. To take the initiative in the multilateral efforts to entrench durable peace, Seoul needs to maintain some leverage over Pyongyang, experts pointed out.
(
sshluck@heraldcorp.com)
