South Korea’s productive population will decrease to 73 percent of the total next year as the nation quickly ages, according to Woori Investment and Securities.
As the dependent population dramatically increases while the productive sector declines, the firm warned that many businesses, such as coffee shops and bakeries, may suffer as they would lose the majority of their customers ― those who are in the workforce in their 30s or 40s.
Meanwhile, delivery services and medical supplies and pharmaceutical companies may see prosperity in the future, as they are likely to cater to the elderly population, the investment firm predicted.
South Korea has recorded the OECD’s most extreme demographic shift in the last four decades with its population aging at the fastest pace.
According to the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, senior citizens will account for 39.4 percent of the population by 2050 and 48.2 percent by 2100 if the country maintains the current birthrate of 1.2 children per woman ― the lowest rate among OECD countries.
At the current birthrate, the country’s overall population is expected to shrink to 22 million in 2100 from 51.65 million in 2026. The productive population ― those aged 15 to 64 ― is to decline from 24.21 million in 2030 to 9.48 million in 2100.
According to the OECD, the number of individuals in the workforce per senior citizen in Korea is predicted to drop to 1.96 by 2036, from this year’s 5.26.
By Claire Lee (
dyc@heraldcorp.com)
