BERKELEY ― However bad you think the global economy is today in terms of the business cycle, that is only one lens through which to view the world. In terms of global life expectancy, total world wealth, the overall level of technology, growth prospects in emerging economies, and global income distribution, things look rather good, while on still other dimensions ― say, global warming or domestic income inequality and its effects on countries’ social solidarity ― they look bad.Even on the busine

NEW YORK ― The horror has become almost routine. This time, the massacre site was a movie theater in Aurora, Colorado, where accused shooter James Holmes murdered and injured dozens of moviegoers. In 1999, the scene was nearby Columbine High School. By some estimates, there are more than 20 mass shootings per year in the United States. And always the same question: Why?When the U.S. is compared to the rest of the world, one reason becomes obvious: while America may not have more homicidally insa

A speculative bubble is a social epidemic whose contagion is mediated by price movements. News of price increase enriches the early investors, creating word-of-mouth stories about their successes, which stir envy and interest. The excitement then lures more and more people into the market, which causes prices to increase further, attracting yet more people and fueling “new era” stories, and so on, in successive feedback loops as the bubble grows. After the bubble bursts, the same contagion fuels

LONDON ― I do not envy the current European leaders their task. Over the past 60 years, Europe has developed into the largest political union and biggest economic market the world has seen. To keep it is a huge responsibility. So I write with deep humility and respect for those called on to discharge that responsibility.This crisis is existential for Europe. The design flaw of the euro is now manifest. It was a project entirely right in principle ― to combine a single market with a single curren

A respected British academic once took note of an ASEAN trait in the face of Chinese assertiveness ― it tended to back off.Operating on the principle that “discretion was the better part of valor,” the ASEAN way was to go silent rather than upset Beijing, Gerald Segal observed.Segal could well have been referring to ASEAN’s recent embarrassing failure to issue a joint communique after stumbling over how to deal with the South China Sea maritime disputes.But he was not. He was writing in 1996 abo

WASHINGTON ― The first question to ask about the draconian anti-leaking legislation passed by the Senate intelligence committee last week is whether it applies uniformly to all branches of government that may disclose classified information unlawfully. And the answer is: Of course not. Members of Congress and their staffs are entirely exempted from the new rules that may require for others more polygraphs, more paperwork, and possible loss of pension benefits. White House and other executive bra