[Security Forum] Uncertainties cloud security on Korean Peninsula, experts say

A second Donald Trump administration is expected to bring a slew of uncertainties to the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, which calls for Seoul to bolster its alliance with Washington and find a key role in the US’ potential policy shifts, experts pointed out Wednesday.

During a panel discussion at the Korea Herald Security Forum titled "Alliance After US Election 2024: A Seoul Perspective" held at the National Assembly in Seoul, four experts addressed looming concerns tied to regional security following Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

“I think South Korea is adept at navigating Washington and Beijing’s rivalry by doubling down on the alliance with the US and broader trade security efforts while keeping the economic and diplomatic doors open to China,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.

“But there are at least three major sources of uncertainty: Trump’s unconventional personal diplomacy with other leaders; whether Beijing responds to Trump’s threats of additional tariffs with a trade war or compromise; and interaction with other challenges like climate change, inflation and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.”

As South Korea-US relations are also projected to enter a phase of unpredictability, Seoul must find a key role in the potential reopening of nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang, according to Jun Bong-geun, professor emeritus of Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

“A possible second summit between Trump and (North Korean leader) Kim Jong-un will be crucial (in determining the course) of South Korea’s relations with the US and I believe that there is a solid chance that the meeting will actually take place,” Jun said.

“South Korea has two options when the dialogue reopens,” he noted. “One is to reaffirm North Korea’s complete denuclearization and advise Washington to uphold its principle of no compensation before Pyongyang takes detailed measures on verifiable and irreversible denuclearization. The other is to take a firm role in finding mutual benefits for all through sufficient cooperation and dialogue between Seoul and Washington, which then will smoothly pave the road towards a second Trump-Kim summit.”

During his first term from 2017 to 2021, the first-ever summit between US and North Korean leaders took place in Singapore in 2018, with Trump hosting the meeting with Kim. Another summit took place in Vietnam in February the following year, but they failed to reach a deal on rolling back Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. The bilateral nuclear talks have been since stalled

US-North Korean relations have since remained moribund under the Joe Biden administration's effective return to the Barack Obama administration's "strategic patience," which prioritizes strengthening alliances and increasing international pressure over dialogue to address North Korea's growing nuclear threats.

Jun pointed out that the process would be finding “common ground” between the Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s “audacious initiative,” a road map to offer economic help to North Korea “in stages” if the regime stops the development of its nuclear weapons, and Washington’s offers. Washington is likely to return to its previous rhetoric of matching Pyongyang’s denuclearization steps with offers of sanctions relief, which would be a shift from the Biden administration’s strategic patience, focused on strengthening alliances and increasing international pressure rather than dialogue to counter Pyongyang’s nuclear threats.

On the possibility of a reduction or even a pullout of US troops from the peninsula, experts said “it is not an unlikely scenario,” but it would be also difficult for Trump to achieve, according to experts.

“In the past, the US government had attempted to pull out US troops here, but have failed due to disagreements from their chiefs of staffs and the Congress,” said Min Tae-eun, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, adding that Trump would encounter the same opposition in Washington.

“(A pullout or reduction) is not an unlikely scenario, but it is very difficult for a US president to make such a move without the support of his Cabinet and the public,” Min added.

Chung Ku-youn, a professor at Kangwon National University, said if Trump brings up such a possibility it would be a negotiating tactic to fully bring South Korea into its security architecture.

“It’s actually not about the financial cost of stationing troops in Korea anymore. It’s about bringing in the countries and negotiating to make countries fully take roles in the US’ security architecture,” she explained.