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Police officers stand guard in front of the Russian Embassy in Seoul on Oct. 28 as veterans groups stage a protest calling for Russia to quit deploying North Korean troops in the Ukraine war. (Yonhap) |
North Korea is believed to have dispatched thousands of soldiers to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, with thousands more anticipated to join by the year’s end, according to South Korean intelligence and military officials.
While the National Intelligence Service said in its latest analysis the costs of North Korea stepping into the war seem to outweigh the benefits, other experts in Seoul say Pyongyang can now expect Moscow to have its back in a possible contingency on the Korean Peninsula.
The Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank affiliated with the NIS, said in a report Friday that North Korea’s decision to send troops to Russia a few weeks before the US presidential election appears to be based on the calculation that a Donald Trump victory would lead to an early end to the Ukraine war.
“The US under Trump could pull out of Ukraine, which would undermine one of the main pillars of the new Cold War-like structure that Pyongyang has worked hard to build in recent years in its close cooperation with Moscow,” the INSS said in the report. “Given the uncertain prospects of war after the US election, Pyongyang quickly moved to bind Moscow to its foreign strategy in advance.”
In a report released a week prior on Oct. 22, the INSS argued that North Korea would lose value to Russia once the war subsides. When that point comes, North Korea, while ensnared in sanctions and ties strained with traditional ally China, could no longer count on Russian assistance, the think tank said in the report.
“In the long run, North Korea stands to lose more than it gains by joining Russia’s war,” the report said.
Rep. Wi Sung-lac, who was Seoul’s ambassador to Russia, told The Korea Herald that entering the war against Ukraine is “not a bad deal at all” for North Korea.
For one thing, the country’s financial and food crises are largely taken care of by Russian compensation for its contribution to the war effort, said Wi, who was briefed by the NIS as a member of the National Assembly intelligence committee.
The NIS reported to the Assembly last week that each North Korean soldier sent to fight for Russia would be paid a monthly wage of around $2,000. At least 10,000 North Korean soldiers are believed to be headed for Ukraine, translating to yearly revenue of well over $200 million, the lawmaker said.
In addition to troops, about 4,000 North Korean workers are currently in Russia, according to the NIS. Their average wage is thought to be about $800 a month.
Wi said every year on average, North Korea produces around 4 million tons of grain such as rice, barley and wheat, according to its own announcement. But most of the country’s “rice production” is actually potatoes, with rice thought to make up less than a third of the total, he explained.
“The 4 million tons of grains that North Korea says it produces per year are actually about 1 million tons short of what it needs to feed the country. If Russia is offering 600,000 to 700,000 tons of rice, that is enough to cover more than half of what North Korea would need to meet the year’s demand,” he said.
The lawmaker said Russia had sent North Korea 50,000 to 100,000 tons of rice at a time in the past. “So you could say 600,000 tons is a bit more than the rice aid they received from Russia previously,” he said.
Now that Russia is buying artillery shells from North Korea, much of the food shortage was “probably relieved through the arms trade,” he said. “By selling a few containers worth of artillery shells, Pyongyang can afford a lot more than hundreds of thousands of tons of rice.”
The NIS reported to the Assembly last week that Russia is also believed to be helping North Korea with advanced space technology, as Pyongyang seeks to launch another military reconnaissance satellite.
But the sweetest part of the deal North Korea would be securing is possibly getting Russia to fight alongside it in the event of a Korean Peninsula contingency.
“North Korea is on record as having fought for Russia. If there ever is a war on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea can now expect Russia to come and help,” Wi said.
Nam Sung-wook, the former president of the INSS, told The Korea Herald the NIS think tank was “downplaying” the significance of North Korea joining the Ukraine war with its recent reports.
“North Korea and Russia’s military cooperation is going to last beyond the war. They agreed to provide immediate military assistance if either of them is attacked under the mutual defense pact, which is binding,” he said.
Nam said North Korea “will remain useful to Russia as a bargaining chip” in negotiations with the next US administration. “Moscow will use its close ties with Pyongyang to gain leverage over Washington, the way Beijing had in the past,” he said.
