Korean presidential elections have basically been races between the ruling and main opposition parties in the past. Third-party candidates, if they have made it to the finish line, have been little better than spoilers. Yet, the routes to a two-way competition have often been convoluted, as witnessed during the run-up to the 1997 and 2002 elections.
In his fight against a formidable conservative rival, the liberal candidate Kim Dae-jung won the support of a lesser conservative candidate, Kim Jong-pil, in November 1997. He won the election the next month. A little more than a month left until the election, however, was too short a time for the electorate to vet Kim’s promise to share his government with his partner and seek a constitutional revision in favor of the cabinet system of government.
Even more dramatic were the progressive candidate Roh Moo-hyun’s 2002 alliance with a third-party candidate and its aftermath. He secured support from his ally when his approval rating plummeted below the 16 percent mark in November, only to be jilted on the eve of the election. These sudden unions and splits jolted campaigns that had appeared to be running their expected course. In the turn of events, however, a sympathy vote undoubtedly helped Roh win the election.
This year’s election may be no less chaotic, with a potential third candidate retaining high approval ratings. This makes it impossible to tell whether the election will be a two-way race or a three-party competition at a time when the nomination processes are either complete or near completion in the ruling and main opposition parties.
Rep. Park Geun-hye has recently been selected as the ruling Saenuri Party’s standard-bearer. In the main opposition Democratic Party, Rep. Moon Jae-in is almost assured of being nominated when the primaries are completed on Sunday. Many say there will be no need for a run-off election if the frontrunner keeps his momentum.
Still, few would say with conviction that the Dec. 19 election will be between Park and Moon. Instead, it appears more likely to be a contest between Park and Ahn Cheol-soo, a professor of Seoul National University, who has yet to declare his bid for the presidency. Ahn is neck and neck with Park in approval ratings, with Moon trailing behind.
Assurances about a bipartisan contest are further undermined by the opposition party’s desire to run a primary between its nominee and Ahn. The electorate has yet to figure out whom the ruling party’s candidate will have as her main adversary at a time when it should start to learn where the contestants stand on issues of great concern.
With less than 100 days left to the election, one of the most urgent issues is the economic slump, which is likely to continue into next year.
Exports are declining. Growth is slowing to a snail’s pace, placing corporate management on an emergency footing. Many young people fresh out of college find it extremely difficult to land jobs.
In a word, economic conditions have become so dire that the administration has decided to cut taxes and take other measures to boost demand. Yet, the administration’s sense of crisis is shared by none of the presidential hopefuls. They offer no concrete remedies to the nation’s ill health. Instead, their economic policy discourse is limited to boosting welfare spending.
National security is no less vital. But the presidential hopefuls have yet to cite relations with North Korea as a key campaign issue. With inter-Korean relations seriously damaged under President Lee Myung-bak, each of them will have to tell the nation if they would stay the course or begin any peace initiatives toward the communist North.
If the presidential hopefuls are to launch a lively public debate on economic, security and other serious campaign issues, one of the first things to be done is for Ahn to make public whether he will run in the election. Should Ahn decide to make a bid for the presidency, the Democratic United Party will immediately have to decide whether or not to invite him to a final pre-election competition with its own nominee.
