When the new National Assembly is inaugurated in June, the ruling Saenuri Party and the main opposition Democratic United Party will continue to hold the exclusive power to negotiate the parliamentary operations.
They will be the only parties that qualify as official negotiating groups.
Still, they will certainly find chinks in the faade of the virtual two-party system, as a resurgent third party is set to have its voice heard.
During the run-up to the parliamentary elections last week, few talked about a forthcoming political realignment. Though the elections may have produced no dramatic shift in parliamentary politics, however, the surge of voter support for the United Progressive Party undoubtedly planted the seeds of a dramatic change in the political system.
The party on the far left of the ideological spectrum failed to achieve its pre-election goal of winning 20 seats in the 300-member National Assembly ― the minimum required to qualify as a negotiating group. Still, it wowed its supporters when it gained 13 seats ― the largest such a left-wing party has ever gained.
The party’s achievement is put into sharp relief when compared with the performances of its predecessor, the Democratic Labor Party, in the previous elections. The party had gained a solid foothold in representative politics when it won nine seats eight years ago ― five in district elections and the remainder on proportional representation. But its fortune waned four years later when the number of its seats was reduced to five.
This time, the party forged an alliance with the DUP, which proved rewarding when it gained eight more seats. On the other hand, the DUP increased the number of its seats by 46 seats to 127. Some political pundits claim that the alliance did the main opposition party more harm than good and that the party’s leftward move, manifested by the alliance, alienated many moderates and swing voters. They say the party would have gained more seats if it had not been for the alliance.
No matter what impact the alliance had on the outcome of the elections last week, the DUP now needs the UPP more than the UPP needs the DUP. The main opposition party will have to rely on its erstwhile junior partner for support if it wishes to put up effective opposition to the Saenuri Party with 152 seats.
Moreover, the DUP will find it necessary to enter into an alliance with the UPP again, this time for the presidential election in December. Nothing better explains the reason than a look at each party’s share of last week’s vote ― 42.8 percent for the Saenuri Party, 36.4 percent for the DUP and 10.3 percent for the UPP. All other things being equal, a presidential candidate representing the two opposition parties could easily defeat the one fielded by the ruling party.
All this means that the UPP’s clout in its relations with the DUP and, by extension, in determining how to operate the National Assembly will be greater than warranted by the number of parliamentary seats it holds.
The possibility cannot be ruled out that the DUP will have to speak for the UPP when it negotiates with the Saenuri Party. It is not inconceivable that the UPP will attempt to set the parliamentary agenda through the DUP.
But is the UPP up to the task, as the third-largest group in the National Assembly? Few will be convinced that it is until it demonstrates its maturity. Engrained in the memory of the electorate is the wayward behavior of some of its aggressive lawmakers, including one that detonated a teargas device in the main hall of the National Assembly.
The UPP is called on to renounce the use of violence and set a new course of action when it holds a national congress later this month. It needs to behave itself in accordance with its newly acquired status. Otherwise, it will find it extremely difficult to expand its role any further as a party representing the interests of workers and attain its renewed goal of gaining 20 seats or more to qualify as a negotiating group next time.
