Pyongyang power succession moving faster than expected

The hereditary power succession process in North Korea is proceeding faster than expected with its state media depicting heir apparent Kim Jong-un as the top leader both of the military and ruling party.

This runs counter to earlier skepticism that the untested heir, known to be in his late 20s, might face difficulties in taking control of the 1.2-million-strong military and ruling Workers’ Party as he has yet to officially obtain top posts in both.

On Saturday, six days after the North announced the death of its leader Kim Jong-il, the Rodong Sinmun, the official daily of the party, indicated that the North will soon hail Jong-un as “supreme commander.”

When it announced Kim’s death on Dec. 17, the North indicated via its mouthpieces a sole leader will rule the country, calling Jong-un “great successor of revolutionary undertakings and outstanding leader for its party, military and people.”

“Although he has yet to be officially appointed (to lead the party and military), the North actually revealed that from Saturday, Jong-un is virtually the general secretary of the party and supreme commander,” said Cheong Seong-chang, senior fellow at the Sejong Institute.

Jong-un, who the North claims to have been born in 1982, currently serves as vice chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission and holds the rank of a four-star general.

With the succession process moving forward, what is notable is the rise of his so-called “guardians.” Experts concur that the guardians will play a crucial role in facilitating the power transfer process.

They include Kim Kyong-hui, the late leader’s younger sister; Jang Song-thaek, her husband; Ri Yong-ho, chief of the Korean People’s Army General Staff; and Choe Ryong-hae, a longtime aide to the Kim dynasty.

“In simple terms, the actual leader is Kim Jong-un. But as he is young and inexperienced, four or five guardians are helping him rule the country,” said Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

“When there is an issue, the guardians will coordinate over the issue and report their opinions to Jong-un, who then makes final decisions. It is different from a system in which guardians make all the decisions and only gain approval from Jong-un as a formality.”

Yang stressed that the succession process is moving fast as legal and institutional systems are well prepared to support Jong-un as the next leader.

“All preparations in terms of legal, institutional issues and personnel reshuffle had already been done before Kim died. It also gained support for the succession from China and Russia. So it is now pushing ahead with it,” he said.

Yang predicted that the official succession process may be finished in February or March before the North declares that it has become a “strong, prosperous” state next year.

“In order to officially become the supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, the party’s Central Commission should convene a plenary session. To bring him to the top post of the National Defense Commission, the Supreme People’s Assembly should convene a session. The two are expected to be held in February or March,” he said.

Among the guardians, Jang Song-thaek stands out most.

On Sunday, the North’s state television showed footage in which Jang wore a military uniform with a four-star rank on both shoulders for the first time.

Last September, Jong-un, Jang’s wife Kyong-hui and Choe Ryong-hae were given the four-star rank while Jang was not. This was interpreted as a bid to prevent Jang, who serves as vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, from holding too much power.

“At a time when Jong-un actually grabs most power in the military and the party, it appears that the North felt the need to properly treat Jang who played a central role in the initial succession process,” Cheong of the Sejong Institute said.

“As Jong-un carries out a role of the general secretary of the party and supreme leader now, Jang cannot pose a leadership threat to him even though he is given a four-star general rank.”

With the new leadership taking shape, attention is being drawn to whether the North might take a path of reform and openness to shore up its economy. Some claimed that opening to the outside world is inevitable to lift its people out of poverty while others maintain the North, for the time being, will not open up with its priority on stability.

“Some day they will open up. But for the time being, there may not be any big changes as it has stated that the North will be led based on the ‘teachings’ from its late leader,” said Dong Yong-sueng, senior fellow at Samsung Economic Research Institute.

“What is important for Jong-un now is to show to the public that he is capable of leading the country stably. Rather than pushing for anything new including an openness policy, he would focus on stability and carrying out what his father has done.”

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)