N.K. may seek stability in South ties during transition

North Korea was unlikely to make any dramatic policy changes concerning its relations with South Korea for the time being following the death of its leader Kim Jong-il, experts said Monday.

With the third-generation power succession process yet to be completed, North Korea is likely to prioritize stabilizing the country in the aftermath of the leader’s death and focus on domestic issues to facilitate the power transfer, they said.

Some said that Seoul might see an opportunity to foster a conciliatory mood with the North by sending a group to the funeral ceremony slated for Dec. 28, although the North said it would not receive any foreign delegations.

Inter-Korean ties have worsened in recent years after a series of deadly attacks by North Korea. Critics argued that with the Lee Myung-bak administration linking aid to progress in the North’s denuclearization, the bilateral ties further deteriorated.

“As there is a loss of political leadership in the North, it may not be active in carrying out any foreign policies. I, thus, do not anticipate that there will be any dramatic change in inter-Korean relations,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

“How Seoul responds to North Korea’s possible gestures in the future for reconciliation or economic support will be important in making a change in the relations.”

Some experts expressed concerns that the North could carry out additional provocations to strengthen unity among its people or in the process of possible power struggles. This scenario could worsen inter-Korean relations, they said.

“When there is a need to strengthen the internal system, it does something to the outside. There is a possibility of additional provocations such as nuclear or missile tests,” Yoon Deok-min, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, told media.

Some others said that the North could move onto a path of reform and openness as it needs outside help to achieve its goal of entering the stage of a “strong and prosperous” state by 2012. For heir apparent Kim Jong-un to win public support, economic improvement is crucial, they pointed out.

Kim Heung-kwang, head of North Korean Intellectual Solidarity, said that as the iron-fisted leader is dead, elites within the ruling Workers’ Party and the military will try to influence the policy-making process and cause confusion.

“There could be instability in the relations between the two countries as there can be more voices rising from the elites in the policy making and this could lead to confusion on the peninsula,” said Kim, former professor at the Communist College in the North who defected to Seoul in 2004.

Inter-Korean relations dipped to their lowest in years after the North sank the corvette Cheonan and shelled Yeonpyeongdo last year. The two attacks killed 50 South Koreans including two civilians.

Seoul is expected to handle issues concerning North Korea in close cooperation with the international community. After the announcement of Kim’s death, President Lee talked over the phone with leaders of the U.S., Japan and Russia and agreed to closely work together for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, his aides said.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)