Global trade to grow at slowest pace since financial crisis: BOK

Global trade in 2015 and 2016 is expected to grow at the slowest pace since the financial crisis, which could pose serious challenges for an export-oriented economy like South Korea, the central bank said Tuesday.

The report by the Bank of Korea predicted worldwide trade will grow 2-3 percent this year and in 2016, far lower than the average 6 percent annual growth tallied from 2001 through 2008, when the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble triggered a financial crisis that rocked the entire world.

The BOK said that in the first half of this year, trade actually grew just 1.2 percent on-year, the weakest growth recorded since the 1990s, with the exception of the period following the 2001 Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the bursting of the information technology bubble in 2000.

"The pace of growth is even lower than the 3 percent global gross domestic product growth predicted for this year," the report said.

The bank said the overall weakness stems from a slowdown in China's growth and a drop in international commodities prices brought on by weak demand. A drop in commodities prices affects the purchasing power of many countries that export such goods.

In addition, there has been a rise in protectionism among many emerging economies that is adversely affecting global trade, it said.

"With China's growth paradigm changing from an export-oriented to domestic consumption-centered economy, and the weakening of the global sharing of production arrangement of the past few years, the pace of trade growth is unlikely to reach previous levels for the time being," it said. "This poses problems for South Korea, which relies heavily on exports to fuel growth."

The BOK predicted South Korea's growth will reach 2.8 percent in 2015, down from 3.3 percent reached in 2014. The forecast is lower than the 3.1 percent growth target that the finance ministry claimed can be reached for this year.

The main reason for the weak growth number is the sharp drop in exports, which plunged 14.9 percent on-year in August and down 6.3 percent for the first eight months of this year. (Yonhap)