2012 presidential race: Romney inevitable?

Faltering Perry weighs TV ads to slow rival; Poll shows Obama is vulnerable, hurt by economy


WASHINGTON (AP) ― The bitter fight for the Republican presidential nomination could soon get uglier, as Texas Gov. Rick Perry was poised to tap his substantial campaign funds and buy TV ads to criticize the record of Mitt Romney, who seems firmly in command in the field.

The biggest question was when and how Perry would use the advertisements to attack Romney’s record on health care, abortion, gay rights and job creation. His campaign dropped broad hints Wednesday that the moment for a flurry of attack ads was near. Romney, the former governor of the predominantly Democratic state of Massachusetts, has been attacked for his shifting positions on social issues that are held dear by conservative voters who dominate the Republican primary season.

“Now that the field is full, the air war will start soon,” said Katon Dawson, former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party and Perry’s top adviser in the state.

Romney briefly lost his front-runner status when Perry entered the race in August and seemed to project himself as a more solid conservative. But Perry has stumbled in debate performances, and comments he made on immigration and other issues have alienated some Republicans.

Still, Perry seems best positioned among Republican contenders to challenge Romney for a chance to defeat Democratic President Barack Obama.

Polls show Obama is vulnerable as he opens his campaign for a second term in next year’s election. Americans fear the economy could slip back into recession as the recovery slows dangerously after the near financial meltdown in the last months of the administration of former President George W. Bush.

Twelve weeks before the first party voting, the Republicans are coalescing around Romney, who has more campaign experience, money and organization than anyone else. He showed again this week that he’s the best debater in the bunch. And Obama’s campaign is treating him almost as the presumptive nominee ― even though Romney still faces challenges in some early voting states.

Perry’s advisers say plenty of time remains to overtake Romney in key states. They are frustrated by bad reviews of the Texan’s debate performances, including Tuesday’s in New Hampshire, saying it’s Romney who is ripe for sharp criticism of his revised positions on abortion, gay rights and gun control, all now markedly more conservative than in the 1990s and early 2000s.

In the debates so far, Perry has generally fallen flat when hitting Romney’s “flip-flops” and the health care initiative that required Massachusetts residents to obtain medical insurance, a key part of Obama’s health care reform. Perry’s advisers say aggressive TV ads will do a far more powerful job.

Although Republican and Democratic insiders see Romney as the front-runner, several signs give Perry and the other rivals hope. Most Republican polls show Romney falling well short of a majority of support, as restless voters consider one alternative after another.

Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota surged in mid-summer, then fell as Perry briefly soared. In recent polls, former pizza company executive Herman Cain has ranked as Romney’s top rival, although few campaign strategists believe he will be the nominee.

An NBC-Marist College poll in Iowa found that conservative, anti-tax tea party supporters prefer Cain. In national polls, combined support for Cain, Perry and Bachmann exceeds Romney’s support.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of Republican primary voters released Wednesday found Romney and Cain in a dead heat, while Perry dropped to 16 percent. Cain was the first choice of 27 percent of those surveyed, while Romney held firm at 23 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 5.35 percent. The poll was taken Oct. 6-10.

National polls matter less than surveys closer to home in a handful of early voting states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Many campaign strategists say Perry must win the Iowa caucus, or at least far outdistance Romney there, to survive the New Hampshire primary, where Romney is favored.