A U.S. rate hike has become a near certainty as the U.S. economy delivered another month of solid job growth in November.
The latest employment statistics show that 211,000 jobs were created last month, a gain that topped expectations. The figure strongly suggests that the U.S. labor market and economy has become healthy enough to withstand a tighter monetary policy.
Now, the U.S. Federal Reserve appears ready to put an end to seven years of near-zero interest rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a speech in Washington earlier this month that the normalization of monetary policy could not be delayed for too long.
Noting the well-documented lags in the effects of monetary policy, Yellen said a further delay in rate hikes could create a situation where the Fed would have to tighten policy abruptly to keep the economy from overshooting.
So the Fed is expected to embark on a tightening cycle during the Dec. 15-16 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It is expected that the base rate will be gradually raised throughout 2016.
A shift in the Fed’s rate policy is expected to aggravate capital outflows from emerging markets as higher U.S. interest rates will offer higher gains to investors.
Korea is also likely to suffer disruptive capital flows, which could deal a blow to the entire economy.
It is likely that the Korean currency and equities could lose value in the coming weeks or days after a hike. The negative impact, however, may not last for long, as the Korean economy is much more resilient than other emerging economies.
The Korean government and corporations have prepared for U.S. rate hikes since the Fed launched the tapering process in late 2013.
The global market is focusing on the pace of future U.S. rate hikes. Considering the not-so-high inflationary pressures in the U.S. and the persistent deflationary pressures around the world, the likelihood of a rapid hike is not so high.
As U.S. rate hikes appear imminent, local policymakers need to raise their guard and check whether domestic financial institutions are prepared for the risks from a change in U.S. monetary policy.
But excessive concern could backfire by dampening business and investor sentiment. U.S. rate hikes have some positive aspects. They mean that the U.S. economy is rebounding, which is a boon for Korean exporters.
A popular axiom in the financial investment sector is that a widely known risk is not a risk to the market any more.
Policymakers face the tough challenge of ensuring a soft-landing for the rate hike’s effect on Korea’s record household debt. Borrowers will face higher interest burdens if the Bank of Korea is forced to follow suit and starts to raise the benchmark rate next year.
