BOK expected to hold key rate amid growing uncertainties

South Korea's central bank is widely expected to stand pat on its key interest rate for another month as it continues to gauge the impact of external developments on the country's economy, a poll showed Monday.
  

In a poll conducted by Yonhap Infomax, the financial news arm of Yonhap News Agency, 12 out of 15 economists surveyed projected the Bank of Korea will keep its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.5 percent for October at its monthly rate-setting meeting Thursday.
  

In efforts to bolster growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy, the BOK has delivered four rate cuts in just over a year, sending its key rate to a record low level in June.
  

Many of the economists noted China's slowing economic growth, along with other global developments, such as an impending U.S. rate hike, may warrant an additional rate cut down the road but said the BOK will likely extend its wait-and-see mode at least for another month.
  

"Admittedly, China's slowdown and global market volatility are adding uncertainties to the exports outlook. The impact isn't large enough to warrant further rate cuts for now," said Ma Tieying, an economist from DBS in Singapore.
  

The economists also said the BOK does not have the option of another rate cut, especially ahead of what BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol has called an "imminent" U.S. rate hike, which could result in a mass outflow of foreign capital here.
  

"The BOK's monetary policy committee is expected to keep its key rate at the current level for some time. There had been expectations for another rate cut, but we believe the possibility of an additional cut is very slim amid the anticipated normalization of U.S. monetary policy and growing household debts," said Kim Jong-soo, an economist at Taurus Securities.
  

Amid the array of rate cuts, the country's household debts have been growing steadily, reaching 609.6 trillion won ($530.55 billion) as of end-August.
  

Shin Dong-joon, an analyst from Hana Daetoo Securities, noted that the effects and the benefits of an additional rate cut can only be limited, saying the BOK will likely freeze its key rate for October before a rate cut next month.
  

Others said the BOK may seek to bolster growth with another rate cut.
  

"I believe there needs to be additional policy measures as downside risks for growth remain high while inflation also remains weak," said Kwon Han-wook of Kyobo Securities. "We especially need to pay attention to the fact that global uncertainties are growing while the country's exports remain weak."
  

South Korea's exports have dropped for nine consecutive months.
  

The combination of poor local spending and anemic outbound shipments will likely force the BOK to again scale down its growth outlook when it offers a revised forecast Thursday, which may be another reason to cut the policy rate.
  

So far, the BOK has twice revised down its growth outlook from the initial 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent in April, then again to 2.8 percent in July.
  

The BOK chief has said a minor revision may be necessary to account for the weak economic performance in the second quarter, though he said the new outlook will not deviate too greatly from the earlier forecast. (Yonhap)