[Jackie Payne] Tipping point in US presidential election

After a wild few weeks, the top of the ticket is once again set for Democrats and Republicans. Polls show US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck. Over the last several years, we’ve seen presidential elections decided by slimmer and slimmer margins, and 2024 will likely be no different.

There’s one thing that links these historically close election results in recent years -- and that’s the voting behavior of America’s moderate women and particularly moderate white women.

There are 49 million moderate white women nationwide, and they make up a large percentage of the undecided bloc in key states. They are movable, they are without a political home, they are looking for a candidate who speaks to them and their concerns, and they are going to show up at the polls in November.

Understanding this key voting bloc is one of the reasons I founded Galvanize Action — an organization committed to listening to and learning who these women are and why they vote the way they do.

Democracy relies on conversation, and we need everyone — including those in the middle — to stay engaged. Ultimately, our work supports civic engagement, even when it can be tempting to avoid the conflict of our increasingly polarized political environment.

To that end, Galvanize Action just released new research and data on what is top of mind for moderate women this election cycle.

In a late July survey, 31 percent of moderate white women said they had not yet committed to a decision about who to vote for in the presidential election. Before President Joe Biden stepped aside, Galvanize Action took a look at how other candidates would compare to Trump. When it came to the top potential Democratic candidates, Harris performed the best -- with 39 percent choosing Harris versus 42 percent choosing Trump. This result is within the margin of error, and it shows Harris is very much within striking distance of Trump among moderate white women. The research also showed they are very close in terms of candidate favorability as well, with 44 percent of moderate white women viewing Harris favorably, compared with 45 percent for Trump.

When asked to identify the top issue this election, an overwhelming majority said the economy. In fact, 42 percent of moderate women marked the economy as their No. 1 concern. In our research over the last year, this audience has specifically expressed increased anxiety around the economy as a result of the stress of putting food on the table, running a household and generally serving as primary caregivers for their families. In those survey results, Galvanize Action found that large majorities of women said they believe the government has a role in ensuring access to the resources and support they need to provide the best care for their children and families.

Moderate white women want to not just make ends meet, but also to thrive, so any candidate looking to win this critical voting bloc over would be wise to speak to these issues.

A second key issue that moderate white women are basing their voting decisions on this election will be reproductive freedom. In the wake of the Dobbs decision, reproductive rights are at the forefront of women’s minds -- with 75 percent saying this issue is important to them when casting their vote.

Moderate women want to see who will tangibly make their lives and their families’ lives better, and they want to understand who will provide certainty and stability by protecting the freedoms that many assumed were settled law until now.

Finally, what I’ve learned in my work over the years with moderate women is that they’re sick of the division. Winning candidates will be able to make arguments around the issues, of course, but they’ll also be effective in showing this group their desire for unity and steadiness in this country. Grievance-based rhetoric that pits us against each other cannot be countered by doubling down with more hate, more fear and darker warnings of threat.

Unsurprisingly, these are the key issues that a broad swath of voters care about -- not just moderate women and moderate white women. Women of all races, ethnicities and backgrounds want economic stability, the freedom to make their own reproductive health care choices and the end of harmful divisions.

When it comes to moderate white women, though, they are still looking for their political home. The candidate who can speak to these issues they care about the most will come out victorious.

Jackie Payne

Jackie Payne is founder and executive director of Galvanize Action. She wrote this for the Chicago Tribune. The views expressed here are the writer's own. -- Ed.

(Tribune Content Agency)