Won-dollar hits 3-year high

The U.S. dollar posted its strongest position against the Korean won in more than three years on Thursday, with its value gaining more than 8 percent over the past three months.

The greenback surged 11.5 won, or 0.99 percent, from the earlier trading session to close at 1,165.1 won. The won-dollar rate marked the highest in 37 months after it traded at 1,165.6 won on June 15, 2012.

Compared to a year earlier, when the dollar traded at 1,010 won, the U.S. currency gained about 15 percent. Analysts were unanimous that the strong dollar is attributable to the expected rate hike of the Federal Reserve later this year and the record-low rate in Korea.

Several investment banks and currency dealers have already predicted that the dollar would rise above 1,200 won in the coming weeks or months and to 1,300 won in a year.

Goldman Sachs was one of the few IBs. Forecasting that the dollar would rise to 1,300 won within 12 months, it highlighted Korea’s lackluster industrial output and exports as the reasons for the won’s further weakness.

“The dollar has been in a strong position on the back of the brisk indices in the U.S. housing sector. In addition, foreigners are selling Korean stocks,” said Samsung Futures analyst Jeon Seung-ji.

Expecting a possible further climb in the exchange rate ahead of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, slated for July 28-29 in Washington, D.C., she said it remains to be seen whether Korean monetary policymakers will intervene to fine-tune the level.

A report from Daishin Securities projected that the rate will rise to 1,200 won. It cited “widening uncertainty over the coming U.S. rate hike” and a “possible dollar outflow in the wake of the Korean government’s policy to promote overseas investments” as the main factors.

On Thursday, foreigners net sold stocks worth 189.1 billion won on Korea’s main bourse.

The won has also shown weakness vis-a-vis the Japanese yen in the past few trading sessions.

By Kim Yon-se (kys@heraldcorp.com)