Senior diplomats from South Korea, the U.S., China and Japan are holding a string of talks this week to coordinate their efforts to draw North Korea into negotiations on dismantling its nuclear arsenal.
South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy Hwang Joon-kook and Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea policy, will travel to Beijing on Thursday for discussion with their Chinese counterpart Wu Dawei. Hwang and Kim held three-way talks with Japan’s top negotiator Junichi Ihara in Seoul on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ihara met with Wu in Beijing before attending the trilateral discussion.
The latest flurry of diplomatic activity is aimed at finding fresh momentum to the resumption of the six-party talks on denuclearizing the North by offering economic and diplomatic incentives to the impoverished and isolated regime. The multilateral negotiations, which also involve Russia, have stalled since late 2008.
Over the past years, the North has advanced its nuclear and missile capabilities. It conducted its second and third nuclear tests in 2009 and 2013 after detonating a nuclear device for the first time in 2006. Some experts now warn that the communist state could produce up to 100 atomic bombs by 2020.
Pyongyang purportedly test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile earlier this month, posing a new threat to regional security. It further escalated tensions last week when it claimed to have built technology to make nuclear warheads small enough to be mounted on missiles.
South Korea, the U.S. and Japan seem to be pushing China to put more pressure on the North to get the recalcitrant regime to enter negotiations with sincerity. This time, Beijing appears more proactive in inducing changes in Pyongyang’s attitude. China showed this by inviting the South Korean and U.S. nuclear interlocutors to Beijing at the same time.
For their part, Seoul and Washington have said they are ready to hold exploratory discussions with Pyongyang with no preconditions attached before undertaking full-fledged nuclear talks. This approach is needed to gauge the North’s true intent at a time when signs are increasing of mounting volatility inside young dictator Kim Jong-un’s regime.
Behind the latest diplomatic moves among the four powers is their shared view that momentum to reviving negotiations with the North should be worked out before Seoul and Washington begin annual joint military exercises in August. Pyongyang has reacted vehemently to what it regards as a rehearsal by South Korea and the U.S. for invading the North. A failure to make a breakthrough in the coming months may further push back the North Korean nuclear issue on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. This should not be the case.
The results of the latest round of consultations and how Pyongyang will respond to them have yet to be seen. What is certain is that more activeness is needed now to change the North’s course of action by combining more pressure with more engagement.
