At a casual glance, the recent string of events on the Korean Peninsula is puzzling. However, if we heed the notion that there is a method to North Korea’s madness, the events of the last few weeks pertaining to Pyongyang and Seoul are no longer an enigma.
It began with the unexpected visit to Incheon on Oct. 4 by a team of three top-ranking North Korean officials led by Hwang Pyong-so, North Korea’s No. 2 man, ostensibly to attend the closing ceremony of the Incheon Asian Games. In yet another surprise, the delegation offered a second round of high-level inter-Korean talks.
The mood for talks suffered a rude shock when, on Oct. 7, South Korean and North Korean patrol boats exchanged fire after a North Korean patrol boat crossed the Northern Limit Line. Another exchange of gunfire took place on Oct. 10 after North Korea opened fire at balloons containing anti-Pyongyang leaflets that were floating across the border near Yeoncheon, Gangwon Province.
Despite the escalation of tension, Seoul responded to Pyongyang’s offer of high-level talks on Oct. 13 by suggesting a meeting be held on Oct. 30 at the truce village of Panmunjeom.
On Oct. 15, the two Koreas set down for high-level military talks for the first time in seven years. While the meeting, proposed by North Korea to discuss the recent skirmish on the Yellow Sea, did not yield results, the fact that the sides met for five hours without one side abruptly walking out was taken as an encouraging sign.
Then, last weekend saw a couple of incidents along the military demarcation line within the DMZ. On Oct. 18, about 10 North Korean soldiers approaching the MDL near Cheorwon, Gangwon Province, returned to their side after South Korean soldiers fired warning shots. The next day, a 10-minute exchange of gunfire took place along the MDL near Paju, Gyeonggi Province, after South Korea had given warnings to 10 North Korean soldiers walking toward the MDL and fired warning shots. The North Korean soldiers fired back and two marks from North Korean rounds were found in a South Korean guard post. Sunday’s gunfire exchange took place only a few hours after a senior presidential secretary said that the two Koreas might hold the high-level talks as planned.
Undeterred by the weekend’s hostilities, the Unification Ministry spokesperson repeated the same sentiment Monday, saying that the government expects the second high-level talks to be held on Oct. 30. Meanwhile, North Korea, in a telephone message Monday, threatened to retaliate if the South continues to take military actions against its patrol activities.
On Tuesday, Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae reiterated the importance of the next round of high-level talks, saying that it could put inter-Korean relations in a “fresh phase.” North of the border, the state media and Workers’ Party of Korea urged keeping the “good atmosphere” alive and improving relations to ensure the second round of high-level talks goes ahead.
This pattern of military provocations that heighten tension followed by gestures of reconciliation is a familiar one. Pyongyang is repeating the same pattern of behavior it displayed during the Kim Dae-jung administration when, following an apparently “warm” phase, it escalated tension with a skirmish on the Yellow Sea in 1999. This was followed the next year by the first South-North summit in Pyongyang that resulted in the South-North Joint Declaration. Two years later, in June 2002, a second naval battle took place in the Yellow Sea. Six months later, Pyongyang declared the resumption of its nuclear development.
While the Park administration should continue to engage Pyongyang, it should remember that history often repeats itself. It should be on guard against falling into the same trap as the Kim Dae-jung administration did in its eagerness to improve inter-Korean relations.
