North Korea has recently made another string of contradictory gestures, with its leader Kim Jong-un having not been seen in public for more than a month.
Last Friday, the North fired antiaircraft machine guns to shoot down balloons containing anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets, which had been floated by South Korean civic activists. After some North Korean machine gun rounds were found to have been fired south of the Demilitarized Zone, South Korean forces fired back dozens of machine gun rounds.
The clash came three days after a North Korean boat crossed the disputed western sea border, inciting a brief firefight with South Korean patrol ships.
These provocative acts followed a surprise visit to Incheon early this month by three top aides to the North Korean leader. During the visit, in time for the closing ceremony of the Asian Games held in the port city west of Seoul, they met with senior South Korean officials and agreed on the resumption of high-level talks in early November at the latest.
Over the weekend, North Korea’s state media outlets issued warnings that the incident involving anti-Pyongyang leaflets could cause the planned talks to fall through, claiming the South Korean government was behind it. On Saturday, however, the North sent a 29-member delegation to the Asian Para Games, slated for Oct. 18-24 in Incheon.
Officials here are accustomed to the unpredictable regime’s pattern of peace gestures accompanied by provocative acts. Still, they appear more alert and cautious in dealing with the mixed signals from the North, with its leader having remained out of public view since attending a concert in Pyongyang with his wife on Sept. 3.
The North may be seeking to gain the upper hand in the lead-up to the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue and avoid letting its latest conciliatory move toward the South be interpreted as weakness.
Pyongyang may also intend to divert attention from Kim’s long absence from the public scene, which has sparked speculations that he is suffering from serious health problems or even that a military coup has taken place. At the moment, it seems sensible to reason that the North Korean leader is in control of the communist state, while possibly recuperating from an ankle injury. But a continued absence could increase internal instability in the impoverished and isolated regime.
In these circumstances, South Korean administration officials, politicians and civic group members need to closely watch developments in the North and cautiously prepare for all possibilities. They should maintain a concerted stance in handling inter-Korean matters.
The South Korean government cannot prevent civic activists from sending leaflets across the border as demanded by Pyongyang, because there are no pertinent legal grounds for doing so. But civic groups may need to pay more heed to its request for heightened restraint to avoid provoking the North unnecessarily at this critical juncture in inter-Korean relations.
