In his upcoming summit with Kim, Trump must hold firm and maintain the US military presence in East Asia -- regardless of whether or not denuclearization is achieved.
North Korea’s six decades of hostility toward Seoul, Tokyo and Washington has for the most part been conducted as a non-nuclear power. Yet, notwithstanding its new nuclear weapons program, the Kim regime’s nature and conventional forces alone justify Washington’s military alliances with Seoul and Tokyo.
North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung, was willing to sacrifice a generation of the North’s young men in an attempt to unite the peninsula under his rule during the Korean War. Since this failed undertaking, the North has viewed the Korean War as unfinished business while seeking to preserve the power of the Kim family dynasty.
To these ends, North Korea has maintained a powerful conventional military that, while antiquated, is larger than that of South Korea and enjoys the advantage of close proximity to the South.
According to estimates, the North Korean Army has in excess of 1 million active duty members; the Korean People’s Air Force operates 1,600 aircraft; and the Korean People’s Army Naval Force consists of east and west coast squadrons, special operations forces, fast attack torpedo and missile vessels as well as a fleet of submarines.
Beyond this, it is believed that the North has approximately 9.5 million active, reserve and paramilitary personnel along with extensive chemical, biological and long-range multistage missile programs.
In particular, North Korea’s considerable artillery capabilities pose as a threat to destroy large segments of metropolitan Seoul and its 25 million people -- roughly half of South Korea’s population -- and inflict mass civilian casualties and economic damage.
It is estimated that the Korean People’s Army’s 300mm rocket launchers can hit targets up to 105 kilometers away, putting the US’ Osan Air Base and US Army Garrison-Humphreys within range.
Adding to this dilemma is the North’s criminal behavior on the world stage over the years, replete with periodic aggression toward the South with targeting killings and terror; its export of arms, chemical weapons and nuclear technology; as well as its kidnapping of foreign nationals.
President Trump is admirably intent on denuclearizing North Korea to resolve the current crisis. Yet, even if Trump is successful in ridding Kim of his nuclear weapons, he must hold firm on maintaining the American spear in East Asia.
Nuclear weapons or not, the sordid nature of the Kim regime requires the presence of forward deployed US forces in the region while also serving as a needed counterbalance to a rising China.
Given its track record, there is scant reason to trust Pyongyang, irrespective of its nuclear status and posture. The unique deterrence and containment capabilities of the US military are still necessary at this new stage of US-North Korea relations.
Ted Gover
Ted Gover is the associate director of the Tribal Administration Program at Claremont Graduate University. -- Ed.
