Trump unlikely to drastically change US defense policy on South Korea

The US defense policy concerning South Korea is unlikely to undergo an extensive change under the leadership of President-elect Donald Trump, US experts said at a Seoul symposium Tuesday.

Trump, who beat Democratic Party favorite Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election last week, has publicly made controversial comments. They include the accusation US allies are “freeloading” on defense, and he even seemed to toy with the prospect of pulling US forces out of South Korea unless the host country shoulders more of the financial burden.

Karl W. Eikenberry, a director of the US-Asia Security Initiative at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, highlighted that presidential candidates often have a history of making pledges with little or no intent to follow up.

“Such talks did begin to disappear this summer and fall. And two-thirds of the Americans surveyed have said that they support the (Seoul-Washington) alliance and forward-stationing of the US forces in peninsula,” he said during “The New US Administration’s East Asian Policy and the Korean Peninsula” session jointly hosted by think tanks Sejong Institute and APARC.

Eikenberry -- formerly US ambassador to Afghanistan -- stressed that as of yet, Trump is not likely to have detailed plans about the issue of defense strategies, as he lacks aides considered part of the traditional national security establishment.

“He knows he has to rely on the experiences of others. The selection of Vice President-elect Mike Pence to lead his transition team indicates that this is the case,” he said, indicating the selection of the seasoned politician Pence shows that Trump will be open to the wisdom of his trusted aides.

“We should expect (a) President Trump who has a defense strategy that is informed and implemented by the expertise of those cabinet and agency officials.”

Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford, assessed Trump “would not have the slightest grasp” of many of the foreign policy and security issues, and that professionals could fill in the blanks.

Former US Ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens said there have been concerns during previous transitions of administrations about policies being uprooted. This was particularly the case with Jimmy Carter, who had an “explicit platform” of withdrawing all troops from South Korea.

“But my general observation here is this, that we survived all this. And our alliance did indeed continue to mature. So I think that gives us some grounds for optimism,” Stephens, a William J. Perry distinguished fellow at the APARC, said.

She added that more talks related to defense arrangements in South Korea are likely to occur in the future. This includes costs related to the upcoming deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system, and possibly accelerating the transfer of wartime operation control from US to South Korea.

But Stephens stressed it is “truly unpredictable what kind of president he would be,” as the panels agreed Trump’s administration will likely spark many questions.

McFaul said he was worried a Trump meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin without sufficient preparation would bring unintended negative consequences, as he may attempt to cut a deal while disconnected from advisers.

Negotiating as a businessman, he said, is very different from negotiating with world leaders.

By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)