North Korea's saber-rattling is no bluff: ministry

The South Korean military Tuesday said that it sees North Korea’s nuclear programs, ballistic missiles and its new large-caliber multiple rocket system as “real threats,” dismissing speculation that Pyongyang’s nuclear threats were empty rhetoric.

“North Korea has been conducting multiple test-firings related to improving the performance of the new rocket launcher. Our intelligence is cross-referencing the projectiles, range and trajectory with our information for assessment,” said Na Seung-yong, deputy spokesman for South Korea’s Defense Ministry.

Na said that despite some saying that Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile threats were empty rhetoric to gain leverage in international politics, the military believes them to be “an actual threat.” He added that the military is preparing for the North’s next nuclear tests -- which observers believe will take place before the ruling Workers’ Party convention in May.

The North’s state media Korea Central News Agency reported Tuesday that its leader Kim Jong-un had inspected the final test firing of the new 300-millimeter caliber multiple rocket launching system before being deployed in the battlefield.

While the agency did not specify when and where the test firing had taken place, it is possible it may refer to five projectiles fired into the East Sea by Pyongyang on Monday.

The objects flew 200 kilometers, based on which the military speculated that they may be projectiles from the new rocket launchers -- believed to have a maximum range of 200 kilometers -- or short-range Scud missiles.

The U.S. Defense Department told local media Monday that it believes the projectiles to be short-range ballistic missiles, which mark a violation of the U.N. Security Council resolution.

But the Joint Chiefs of Staff said that the South Korean military believes it to be the new large-caliber rocket launcher.

Pyongyang has also claimed to have equipped GPS-guidance and altitude control functions to its rocket launcher to improve accuracy. Deployment of the system near the inter-Korean border would put the entire Seoul metropolitan area within its range.

Seoul officials declined to specify which military assets are being considered to counter the threats. The K-239 “Chunmoo” multiple-launch rocket system is among the potential candidates, but its range of 80 kilometers is considerably shorter than that of North’s launcher.

Seoul’s Army tactical missile system boasts a 300-kilometer range, but its shortcoming is relatively low accuracy.

U.K.-based IHS Country Risk’s senior analyst Alison Evans said that the recent missile launches by Pyongyang, combined with its protest over the annual Seoul-Washington joint military drills increases the risk of escalation in the peninsula.

The allies on Tuesday kicked off a joint naval drill -- part of the annual Foal Eagle exercises -- that will continue through Friday. The drill is against possible provocations from the North via sea. Carrier strike group of Nimitz-class nuclear-powered USS John C. Stennis arrived in Busan last Sunday to participate in the drill.

“If (the North’s relations with) China do not improve, increasing economic hardship in North Korea, it may well make more provocative action a logical option for the leadership, which is likely to be feeling more confident in the deterrent value of its improved military capabilities, and seeking swift and substantial concessions from China and the U.S.,” she said.

According to a Seoul government official, the International Civil Aviation Organization has sent a warning to the North over the recent missile launches. Citing the Convention on International Aviation, it said that the North should file a notice with relevant authorities before launching missiles to alert aircrafts of potential hazards.

By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)