North Korean nuclear attack implausible: U.K. institute

Despite North Korea’s recent threat of nuclear strikes against South Korea and the U.S., the possibility of Pyongyang actually carrying out an attack is implausible, a U.K.-based expert said.

The communist country’s tough rhetoric is likely to moderate “conventional behavior” from the allies and Japan, the expert noted.

Karl Dewey, a senior analyst at London-based defense information provider IHS Jane’s, said that the North’s ability to escalate its nuclear weapons is unlikely, considering the U.S. guarantee of extended nuclear deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been stepping up belligerence against the South, after the U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution encompassing what officials have called “the strongest sanctions in decades.” Kim recently warned of Pyongyang’s nuclear strike against the contiguous U.S., ordering his troops to have the self-proclaimed nuclear arsenal “on standby.”

“If one believes in the U.S. guarantees of defending South Korea and Japan with nuclear weapons if necessary, then North Korea’s ability to use its nuclear weapons (of whatever range), without facing massive destruction, remain incredible,” Dewey said in an email exchange with The Korea Herald.

He said that the North’s threat of nuclear weapons is designed to induce a response from Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, so its behavior would be less threatening to itself.

Local experts have said that the Pyongyang’s tough words indicate its fear of the belligerence by the allies.

Following Pyongyang’s threats, the U.S. has deployed a series of its strategic assets in the Korean Peninsula, including a strike groups flag-shipped by the nuclear-powered supercarrier John C. Stennis and the amphibious assault vessel USS Bonhomme Richard. South Korean military officials have stressed that this year’s Seoul-Washington joint military drill will be “the largest ever,” in terms of size and strategic assets deployed.

Kim Yong-hyun, professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said that the provocations are a gesture that it will not yield to mounting international pressure.

Dewey speculated that the recently revealed device by North Korea -- which Pyongyang has claimed to be a thermonuclear weapon -- is more likely to be a boosted fission weapon based on its structure. He said the yields of the latest nuclear test in January do not suggest that they have achieved this, but added that uncertainty remains as there are ways to mask the seismic signature.

“I can’t give a definitive answer, but I think practical concerns make the device shown in the photo (or if it is a mockup, what it represents) as rather unlikely as being a thermonuclear weapon,” he said.

An unnamed military official has said that the device may be a model, as Kim was seen smoking in front of it in one of the photos revealed by the North’s state media. Pyongyang has, in the past, been known to show off models to exaggerate its military prowess.

Whether the North has the capacity to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to mount onto a ballistic missile remains a topic of debate. An anonymous South Korean government source told local media that the government is “putting more weight on the possibility that it is an actual device.”

Defense Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-kyun reiterated the ministry’s stance that while North Korea has achieved “considerable progress in miniaturizing its nuclear warhead,” it is not believed to have procured a fully miniaturized nuclear warhead.

“Both the South Korean and U.S. authorities are evaluating (the device), and it is premature to definitively state what it is,” he said during Monday’s briefing.


By Yoon Min-sik
(minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)