Troop cut plan back in spotlight

The issue of South Korea’s troop reduction returned to the spotlight this week, as the government endorsed a revision to the defense reform act to postpone the target year for the reform to 2030 from the previous 2020, at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday.

As the reform measures under the act include a plan to decrease the active-duty troop level to 522,000 from the current 633,000 by 2022, the revision has given more time for the Defense Ministry to complete the troop reduction.

But the ministry claims that its original plan for the troop drawdown remains unchanged, as criticism surged that the ministry has changed its long-term reform plans too frequently because it has set “unrealistic” goals.

A ministry official said that the revision was made as other reform measures are unlikely to be completed by the previous target year of 2020.

“The revision came as it would be difficult to complete all the other reform measures by 2020 as stipulated in the act,” the official told The Korea Herald on condition of anonymity.

“But the troop reduction plan will remain intact. In fact, given the demographic changes, maintaining even 522,000 troops by 2022 will be difficult.”

The South’s troop reduction plan, which is being pushed due to the country’s demographic challenges and technological advancements, has triggered concerns that it could weaken readiness to cope with North Korea’s evolving military threats.

The U.S.’ ongoing moves to scale down its ground force have also added to the concerns, as they raised the possibility that Washington might not be able to send sufficient ground troops to the peninsula in case of a contingency.

After the end of ground warfare in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. Army has been reducing its forces. It plans to reduce the number to 450,000 from 490,000 by 2017. It is also reportedly considering reducing the figure to 420,000 by 2019.

“Currently, the U.S.’ way of conducting military operations overseas is that it minimizes the use of ground forces while bolstering the roles of the air force and navy,” said Park Won-gon, security expert at Handong Global University.

“That means the role of South Korea’s ground forces will increase in the event of a conflict.”

Maintaining the adequate level of ground forces are crucial not only for combat missions, but also to cope with the possible collapse of the regime in Pyongyang and postwar stabilization operations, experts said, noting Washington might want Seoul to strengthen its group troops.

According to a report by the U.S.-based think tank RAND Corp., the U.S. might need at least 150,000 American troops from outside the Asia-Pacific region, in addition to 38,000 troops already in the region including Korea and Japan, to eliminate weapons of mass destruction in the North in case of a contingency.

For other military operations, there should be more ground forces, analysts said.

“The (RAND) report is trying to explain minimum U.S. ground force requirements. It recognizes that some U.S. security experts feel that Korea ought to do more to provide for Korea’s own defense and objectives (for example unification),” Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corp., told The Korea Herald.

“But U.S. interests in Korea must look at the elimination of the North Korean WMD threat because WMD that gets to third parties will likely be targeted at the U.S., and because within a few years North Korea may have an ICBM that could be fired at the United States.”

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)