North Korean leader may seek another summit with Trump, but chances for deal seen as slimmer

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may seek another summit over its nuclear program with US President-elect Donald Trump following his second-term win, but the chances for a meaningful deal appear to be lower, given the North's enhanced nuclear capabilities, analysts said.

During his first term, Trump hosted the first-ever summit between American and North Korean leaders with Kim in Singapore in 2018, followed by another summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, the next year. But they failed to produce a deal to curb North Korea's nuclear program.

US-North Korean relations have since remained moribund under the Biden administration's effective return to the Obama administration's "strategic patience," which prioritizes strengthening alliances and increasing international pressure over dialogue to address North Korea's growing nuclear threats.

Experts said returning to the presidency, Trump may dust off his diplomacy toolbox and pursue another summit with Kim, but the chances of reaching a deal are lower this time than during his first term due to Kim's apparent pursuit of nuclear state status.

Following its test-firing of the new Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) last month, North Korea affirmed that the country's policy of bolstering nuclear forces will never change, claiming that it has secured an "irreversible hegemonic position" in the development of nuclear weapons delivery systems.

In 2023, North Korea amended its constitution to reinforce its policy of strengthening nuclear forces, claiming its status of a nuclear state remains "irreversible."

For the first time in nine years, North Korea's denuclearization was omitted as a shared goal in a joint statement issued after last month's Security Consultative Meeting between the defense chiefs of South Korea and the US, a possible indication that denuclearizing the North is no longer realistically achievable.

If Kim were to sit down with Trump, he would attempt to negotiate the US recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state and seek subsequent concessions for "nuclear disarmament," rather than "denuclearization," which was on the table during their previous summits.

Trump, in turn, might have to settle for a "small deal" that deters threats of North Korean missiles capable of reaching the US mainland in exchange for recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state, rather than pursuing denuclearization, said Nam sung-wook, director of the Convergence Institute for National Unification at Korea University.

"There seems to be a growing acceptance of North Korea's nuclear possession as a fact in the international community and among power circles in the US, including IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's reference to the North as a 'de facto' nuclear weapons state," Nam said.

Another obstacle to a potential breakthrough in a future Trump-Kim summit is expected to be the US preoccupation with more urgent international issues, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Gaza-Israel conflict and intensifying rivalry with China, which could push the North Korean nuclear issue to the back burner.

"The negotiating price for North Korea has risen, while it appears difficult for the US to focus on North Korean nuclear issues due to other pressing concerns," the Korea Institute for National Unification predicted in its recent publication.

"Even if they dramatically reach a compromise, it is difficult to say it could last," it said.

In any case, North Korea may not easily turn away from its military adventurism, including ICBM launches and the deployment of troops to support Russia in its war in Ukraine.

Instead, the country is expected to escalate its military provocations to a critical level in the initial phase of the second Trump term in a bid to increase its bargaining power in anticipation of potential dialogue with the US, analysts said.

Experts raised a possibility that South Korea could be excluded from the potential engagement process between Washington and Pyongyang, given Kim Jong-un's animosity toward the South.

North Korea has been erasing unification references and disbanded inter-Korean agencies after Kim defined inter-Korean relations as those between "two states hostile to each other" during a year-end party meeting.

"Speaking from past experiences, South Korea has been able to actively play its part in dialogue between North Korea and the US only when inter-Korean relations were good," said Choi Jong-kun, who served as vice foreign minister.

"But now, inter-Korean relations are at zero level," he said. "If North Korea's denial (of South Korean participation) is combined with the US belief that South Korea is no help, the country could be completely excluded." (Yonhap)