With the latest UN Security Council Resolution 2375 adopted on Sept.12th, it has become clear that China and Russia actually do prefer a nuclear North Korea that can keep the US in check. It’s now time to think of a new option: South Korea’s nuclear armament.
Pyongyang’s July intercontinental ballistic missile tests and the September hydrogen bomb test showed North Korea is capable of subjugating South Korea, while holding hostage US cities and millions of Americans.
The provocations were also “game changers” in the sense Pyongyang can keep the US at bay even while attacking South Korea, for Washington would have to fear the possibility of retaliation on its soil. Seoul must now seek protection and survival, with or without US support. So if the US wants to maintain its global status, it should proactively seek a permanent solution, the implementation of which it can help plan and manage.
That solution is South Korea’s nuclear armament, first starting with the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons, and later with the development of South Korea’s own.
While the US and its allies remained committed to the principle of nonproliferation, efforts aimed at North Korea’s denuclearization have failed. With Pyongyang’s nuclear war heads soon to be ready for installation on their ICBMs aimed at America, nonproliferation and the hope for denuclearization have died. Now, “deterrence” should replace “denuclearization.”
To do that, US tactical weapons have to be quickly brought back to South Korea. However, even this will is only a temporary fix. Seoul will be better protected but still held hostage. South Korea will never feel certain of the US “extended deterrence,” while Pyongyang will continue to test the credibility of it.
The only way to eliminate these doubts is for the US to endorse South Korea’s autonomous nuclear armament. China, Russia and others will oppose it fiercely. But if determination appears strong enough, they may be forced to reconsider.
China and Russia still say dialogue is the only solution. But, North Korea has reiterated again and again that it will not discuss denuclearization. Romania’s Nicolae Ceausescu and Libya’s Moammar Gaddafi gave Kim Jong-un an unshakeable conviction that nuclear weapons are the only way to guarantee physical survival. Now, Kim Jong-un has discovered even greater value in nuclear weapons, as they have given him status as a man to be reckoned with.
Despite this, some say dialogue can at least freeze Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. North Korea may agree to that in return for scrapping Korea-US joint military exercises or the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea. But this only spells victory for the North because it would remain as ready as ever to achieve capability to strike the US.
Economic sanctions are another option, but they have failed to deter Pyongyang. The North Korean economy actually grew by close to 4 percent in 2016, marking its biggest economic expansion in 17 years. With China involved, economic sanctions can never be made “crippling.” China does not want North Korea to collapse or even become unstable, because of refugee problems, economic challenges and security threats.
The “military option” -- meaning a pre-emptive US strike on North Korea -- also is infeasible. More than 140,000 American citizens in South Korea stand in the way. Thousands of North Korean artilleries are lined up along the DMZ, less than 60 kilometers from Seoul, together with chemical and nuclear warheads. So this cannot be a real option for Washington.
Going back to South Korea’s nuclear armament, what happens to the Non Proliferation Treaty regime if we choose this solution? It’s simple. Ensuring peace and saving human lives were the ultimate objectives for the NPT regime. But, since North Korea is threatening peace and human lives, the NPT must be revised to achieve its objectives.
Timing matters. The current US government is uniquely positioned to do what used to be the unthinkable. Challenging longstanding assumptions in global affairs has become a trademark for the Trump administration, so with a sharper focus on national interest over international conventions, Trump can make a better argument for revising the NPT.
For Americans, South Korea’s nuclear armament would be an added protection. Not only would the US no longer have to bear the sole burden of protecting its allies, but the allies can help defend Americans.
China will no doubt oppose. But strong US determination may force it to change its mind. China currently thinks it needs North Korea as a buffer zone, and so accepts Pyongyang’s nuclear capability. China believes a nuclear North Korea to be a more stable and stronger bulwark against the US alliance. The same goes for Russia, as it tries to keep the US in check.
Now, China must face the true price for acquiescing to North Korea. To raise the stakes, the US may even consider allowing Japan and Taiwan to join South Korea in arming themselves with nuclear weapons. In return, China could threaten to become a fully pledged US enemy. But, no matter how difficult this policy change may be, it must be achieved. When convinced that the US is serious about this, China may eventually reshuffle its priorities, since it would not want Seoul and Tokyo to go nuclear.
South Korea is also in a better position to pursue the new goal. The Moon Jae-in government inherits much of the Roh Moo-hyun government’s legacy, which was focused on dramatically increasing self-defense. Along with a long-term defense budget expansion plan, the Roh government had called for transfer of wartime operation control of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command to South Korea. Military reforms were devised to radically upgrade the Republic of Korea forces. These aspirations were abandoned by the conservative Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye governments, but the Moon administration is determined to bring them back. The conservatives also are increasingly vocal about the need for maximum self-defense, so we may see both sides of the political aisle coming together on this issue.
North Korea’s recent military provocations have no doubt driven the US-led world into a corner. But with tried and tired options like dialogue and economic sanctions, there is no way out. The time has come to rethink and revise the long cherished nonproliferation principle. South Korea needs to be allowed to build nuclear weapons for its own defense. This is the only sustainable permanent solution. Only after guaranteeing Seoul’s survival with credible means of deterrence can talks with Pyongyang resume. Only when South Korea has its own nuclear weapons can the North and South sit down together and discuss simultaneous denuclearization.
By Kim Byoung-joo
Kim Byoung-joo is a visiting professor of international relations and politics at Korea Development Institute School of Public Policy & Management. The opinion expressed here is his own. -- Ed.
