Since democracy was restored in 1987 after the end of long military-backed authoritarian rule, the people of the Republic of Korea are going to the polls today to form a new National Assembly for the seventh time. But the passage of a quarter of a century has not accomplished a stable, productive partisan politics and many voters are still not quite sure how different major parties are from one another in policies.
So, 30 to 40 percent of eligible voters, and an even higher percentage in large cities, will not bother to go to polling stations on this temporary holiday. Those who have come and picked up a ballot are likely to check the names of candidates rather than their parties, which have engaged ceaselessly in unproductive internal and external disputes.
Each voter will be given a second ballot with the names of 16 political parties to share the proportional representation seats, numbering 54 in the 300-member National Assembly. One may choose the candidate from A party in one ballot and then press the seal on B party in the other for the sake of balance. This is yet another factor that makes predictions for the outcome of today’s 19th National Assembly elections extremely difficult.
Polltakers have been banned from releasing the results of their surveys since last weekend. Surveyors and political analysts generally agree that no party will be able to secure a majority and the best likely outcome for either the Saenuri Party or the Democratic United Party will be 135 to 140 seats including proportional representatives. The worst possible scenario for the ruling party will be the opposition alliance of the DUP and the United Progressive Party gaining a comfortable majority and the UPP forming a floor negotiating group with the quorum of 20 seats.
Prior to the campaign, both the Saenuri Party and the DUP were embroiled in internal turmoil over their respective nomination processes. Aware of how little public trust they command, the two parties vowed a “nomination revolution” to present fresh, reformative candidates who can change their stale images. Looking at the lists, however, party insiders complained of faction-based allocations, while outsiders were generally disappointed by the absence of innovative personalities.
Burdened by the nomination backlashes, the women leaders of the three parties energetically led campaigns sprinting hundreds of kilometers every day. Saenuri’s Park Geun-hye distanced her party from the unpopular Lee Myung-bak administration but strongly advocated the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement and the economic keynotes of the government. The DUP’s Han Myeong-sook chose the theme of “judgment on the failed MB government” while UPP’s Lee Jung-hee recited her left-wing party’s No. 1 platform of dismantling the all-powerful conglomerates.
Also noteworthy was the emergence of Moon Jae-in as the centripetal figure in the opposition camp. Running in the conservative bastion of Busan against an unknown young Saenuri candidate, Moon, who was chief of staff to the late President Roh Moo-hyun, reassembled the Roh loyalists to hold the hegemony in the DUP and then realized the alliance with the UPP. Moon’s rise pushed a number of former followers of President Kim Dae-jung out of the party. Some of them, mostly from the Jeolla provinces, are running as independents.
While Moon’s profile grew as an opposition presidential candidate for the December election, another likely contender, Ahn Cheol-soo, wildly popular among young people, remained virtually silent during the campaign, presumably under a grand strategy to preserve his image above the noisy surface of partisan politics. His only direct mention of the election these days has been to exhort college students not to abstain from voting.
During the post-democratization period when ideological polarization rapidly progressed in Korean society, the younger generation has been automatically identified with the liberal/progressive force and the older with the conservatives. Analyses of various past elections have proved the division, and again in 2012 a leftist win will undoubtedly require a massive turnout of young voters. The increasing role of social networking services, with which older people are less familiar, allows certain optimism for the leftist opposition.
The opposition alliance’s high expectation of support from young voters led to its infatuation with alternative media such as Internet podcasts, which are inclined to ridicule the president and the establishment, enthralling young fans. The DUP nominated a podcast star for a northeastern Seoul district to attract their votes. When it turned out that the nominee had a record of terrible recklessness, bordering on insanity, the opposition alliance faced a serious dilemma. But they did not ditch him, fearing they would lose the votes of his fans.
It is hard to calculate how many votes of old people, women and Christians the opposition alliance lost because of Kim Yong-min’s foul words. But the damage must have more than offset the number it had gained through its strenuous attacks on the ruling camp over the government’s surveillance on private citizens and the suspected involvement of high authorities in the scandal. The incident exposed the general immorality and lack of decorum in the likes of Kim, who quickly earned popularity by spreading rumors on prominent people that happened to contain some truth.
In the final days of the campaign, the vulgar quotes from the podcaster’s past and recent babble drew keener public attention than the policy remarks of party leaders. It perhaps is the worst blot on the 2012 campaign that the main opposition party has succumbed to the supposed numerical power of young voters and the cyberspace clowns they idolize.
Political parties both on the right and left had a chance to freshen up their images through insightful policies, introduction of respectable candidates and sincere campaigns that appealed to conscientious people. But the nomination of unqualified men and women, insincere explanation of the past deeds ― such as the DUP’s sorry-we-didn’t-know-it-was-wrong-at-the-time excuse about the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement ― and the spate of easy populist welfare promises by both camps squandered those opportunities.
For all these regrets, today’s election has significance as a lead-up to the presidential election in December. It should correctly reflect the people’s assessment of the administration and its party after four years of conservative performance, and the electorate should drive parties to prepare for the presidential election with accurate reading of the people’s yearnings shown in the vote.
At polling booths, citizens should prove that they are wiser than politicians. So, do not stay home but cast your ballots to decide the future of the nation. You can move the country to the right or left, make it slide down to stagnation or rise to another takeoff.
