China pushing to change order: scholar

The U.S. and its Asian allies will continue to face increasing pressure from China, as the emerging great power seeks to reshape the security order and ultimately expel the U.S. from the region, a top political thinker said.

In an interview with The Korea Herald, Stephen M. Walt, professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, also noted the need for collective action to fend off China’s unilateral territorial assertions.

“It is unacceptable for any states in Asia to unilaterally declare new territorial arrangements. I believe China is likely to keep pushing for revisions of this kind, and it will be important for its neighbors and the U.S. to resist these probes,” said Walt.

“If China’s power continues to rise, there will be intensifying security competition in Asia. China will try to push the U.S. out of Asia, mostly by pressuring America’s current allies. The U.S. will want to maintain its current position, but it will need resolute and enthusiastic support from its Asian allies,” he added.

China’s recent demarcation of its Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea has sharply raised military tensions in East Asia. South Korea and Japan have strongly protested the unilateral move and vowed not to recognize the zone, which overlaps with their own zones.

Seoul demanded last week that Beijing adjust the zone to exclude parts of South Korean territory. Beijing rejected the demand, asserting its right to ensure territorial integrity. China’s ADIZ incorporates the area over Ieodo, a South Korea-controlled submerged rock in the overlapping exclusive economic zones of the two countries.

At the same time, South Korea has sought to strengthen its strategic partnership with China ― a crucial partner in trade, investment, tourism as well as North Korea’s denuclearization.

Commenting on Seoul’s increasingly difficult strategic position between the preponderant U.S. and ascendant China, Walt cautioned against becoming too reliant on China.

“There is nothing wrong with South Korea having mutually beneficial economic ties with China; the U.S. does too,” he said. “But it is even more important for South Korea not to become too dependent on China, and to maintain a reliable security relationship with the U.S.”

As to Japanese conservatives’ pursuit of the right to collective self-defense ― the use of force against an attack on an ally, namely the U.S. ― and heavier armaments, Walt painted a positive outlook.

“I think a more ‘normal’ Japan would be in everyone’s interest,” he said, referring to the archipelago state’s push to become a “normal” state with a full-fledged military, which would go beyond the current defense-oriented force management.

Walt also dismissed concerns that Japan’s stronger armament could lead to its reversion to a militaristic national strategy. South Korea and China, two major victims of Japan’s wartime misdeeds, have voiced such concerns as some high-profile Japanese politicians, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, showed a lack of atonement and remorse.

“The militarist attitudes that dominated Japan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries are a thing of the past, and are not going to return in any serious way,” he said. “Given economic and social trends in Asia, Japan is not a security threat that other Asian countries need to worry about.”

To a question of whether Washington would feel uncomfortable with Japan adopting too aggressive a military policy, Walt pointed out that the U.S. would not want anyone else to try to alter the status quo.

“The U.S, Japan, and South Korea have a common interest in maintaining the status quo in East Asia,” he said. “Fortunately, I do not think any of our Asian allies have such ambitions (to alter the status quo), so I am not particularly worried about Japan becoming too aggressive.”

Urging Seoul and Tokyo to try harder to improve their ties, strained due to historical and territorial animosities, Walt underscored that conflicts between the U.S. allies were “counterproductive” for regional security.

“(Conflicts) can weaken our joint efforts to maintain stability in Asia. South Korea and Japan should do more to resolve their current differences, as quarrels between them will make it harder for the U.S. to work with both,” he said.

On North Korea, Walt said the current regime in Pyongyang was unlikely to give up its nuclear program considering that it is the regime’s ultimate protection from external pressure.

“I believe a post-Kim government might be willing to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for economic benefits, just as South Africa, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Belarus did. But political change will have to come first,” he said.

Walt also expressed skepticism over the possibility that negotiations would lead to a complete denuclearization of North Korea.

“Negotiations may convince North Korea to freeze its program, or convince it not to expand its nuclear arsenal further. But I do not believe that the six-party talks will lead to actual disarmament at any point in the near to medium term,” he said.

Profile of Stephen M. Walt

• Stephen M. Walt, professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, is best known for his theory on the “balance of threat” ― a modification of balance of power theory developed by late neorealist Kenneth Waltz.

• He previously taught at Princeton University and the University of Chicago.

• He has authored a number of books and articles including “The Origins of Alliances” (1987), “Revolution and War” (1996), “Taming American Power” (2005) and “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy” (2007).

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)