[Justin Fendos] THAAD is Trump’s chance to learn from Chinese diplomacy

Most media pundits largely agree that Trump has a lot to learn. When he says, “no one knew how complicated health care could be,” we somehow forgive him and understand he meant, “I didn’t know.” When he starts talking about the dangers of uranium in a press conference, as if it’s the latest scientific discovery, we forgive him, sigh in relief, and mutter, “Thank goodness he finally gets it.” Hopefully, the next thing Trump will learn is diplomacy. If Trump needs inspiration, he need only look to China.

Diplomacy between nations is decidedly different from diplomacy in business. In business, leverage is frequently uneven. Before becoming president, Trump usually did business from a position of supreme strength. His counterparts often lacked two things he possessed in abundance: money and good lawyers. In situations like this, there really was no way for Trump to lose. Perhaps a lack of understanding of this reality contributes to Trump’s frequent overconfidence in his personal abilities to “do a deal.”

In the diplomatic dance between nations, any business leverage Trump enjoys is invalidated. Sure, the US as a nation also enjoys leverage, having much to offer, just like Trump: money, influence and protection. Inviting dignitaries to Mar-a-lago might impress a few, too, but it won’t close any deals on its own. Unlike small construction companies that Trump’s lawyers can push around or an upstart marketing firm desperate for his dollars, a country is less likely to be bullied. Global diplomacy, therefore, requires a more gentle approach to address anxieties and lower barriers. The easiest way to do this is by promoting mutual interests.

Take, for example, the strategy China has pursued in recent months to communicate its desire for cooperative dialogue. Given the many harsh things Trump said about China during his election campaign, China very easily could have taken a tough stance. Instead, Beijing opted to demonstrate a patient understanding that successful diplomacy is about close relationships, particularly those involving family.

Even before Trump took office, the Chinese ambassador in Washington invited Ivanka to a highly publicized function at a Lunar New Year event. Around the same time, Tiffany was invited to sit front row at the New York show of popular Chinese fashion designer Taoray Wang. Jack Ma himself met Trump, promising a million US jobs while sponsoring, along with a hundred other Chinese firms, a massive Lunar New Year greeting for Trump in Times Square.

Other things happened even earlier, in the months leading up to Trump’s election. For over a decade, Trump had several trademark violation lawsuits sitting frozen in Chinese courts. Last fall, these cases were suddenly unfrozen. After Trump’s election, all were resolved in Trump’s favor in the span of a week.

China has been very cautious in responding to Trump’s rhetoric about Taiwan and accusations about currency manipulation. In both cases, China has chosen not to name Trump directly as an adversary or condemn his comments. The timing of these and other events can only point to a carefully orchestrated plan signaling China’s willingness to do business in a civil fashion if Trump is willing to reciprocate. China’s suspension of North Korean coal imports, which many assume was retaliation for Kim Jong-nam’s assassination, was actually a move being prepared well before the assassination. Again, a signal of China’s willingness to cooperate on multiple fronts.

The harsh economic fallout from Seoul’s decision to install the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system is another obvious opportunity for cooperation. Given that China’s ban of Korean products and travel is against WTO regulations and likely counterproductive in the long run, it is tempting to speculate that China may be temporarily perpetuating the severity of the crisis so it can be used as another bargaining chip when dealing with Trump. 

Whatever the case, one can only hope Trump starts to learn global diplomacy is less about threats and more about cultivating mutually beneficial relationships, especially those that include other countries in the region like South Korea.

By Justin Fendos

Justin Fendos is a professor at Dongseo University in South Korea and the associate director of the Tan School at Fudan University in Shanghai. -- Ed.