Japan’s economic growth rate is expected to surpass that of Korea for the first time in 15 years as the world’s third-largest economy gains momentum on the yen’s rapid depreciation.
South Korea is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent this year from a year earlier, while Japan is forecast to advance 2.9 percent, according to the data by the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Japan.
If the estimates come true, South Korea's economic growth rate would fall behind that of Tokyo for the first time since 1998, when the economies contracted 5.7 percent and 2 percent from a year earlier, respectively, in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.
South Korea had outpaced Japan in growth for the past decade, posting a 6.3 percent on-year expansion in 2010. But its growth shrank to 3.7 percent in 2011, before contracting further to 2.0 percent last year.
South Korea has also seen its economy underperform its growth potential of 3.6-3.8 percent for the past three years. In contrast, Japan has been emerging from a long period of deflation, with the growth rate eclipsing its 0.8 percent potential for the past two consecutive years.
The probable turnaround of the two countries came as the persistent economic downturn in South Korea has put a dent in private consumption and corporate investment, the main drivers of its growth together with exports, market watchers said.
Meanwhile, Japan has become emboldened to boost its economy, with the government, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, gearing up its aggressive monetary easing maneuvers with a bond purchase of more than 13 trillion yen ($126.8 billion).
Experts said some recent data lend support to such situations in the two countries. South Korea's real household spending slowed to minus 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter from 1.1 percent in the second quarter in 2012, whereas that of Japan improved to minus 0.7 percent at the end of December from minus 0.9 percent in September.
In the stock market, Seoul's benchmark KOSPI declined 5.5 percent in the past two years. The Nikkei average in Tokyo, however, skyrocketed 57.2 percent over the same period.
"South Korea is following Japan's suit just like what Tokyo experienced in the wake of the burst of the economic bubble, with faltering consumption, less investment and a falling population," said Lee Geun-tae, an economist at LG Economic Research Institute.
The South Korean economy logged a 2 percent growth in 2012 from a year earlier, with a 0.9 percent on-year expansion in the first quarter of this year. Japan posted the exact same numbers for both corresponding growth figures, the data showed. (Yonhap News)
