Pressure builds on China as U.S. ups might in Korea

Pressure appears to be piling on China to tame its unruly ally North Korea as Pyongyang’s provocations have led to an increased U.S. military presence around the Korean Peninsula.

Washington has sent to waters close to the peninsula the Sea-based X-Band Radar atop a floating platform, according to CNN. The radar is America’s most advanced tracking system with a range of around 4,800 kilometers that can cover China’s territory.

The Aegis-equipped guided-missile destroyer USS McCain was also reported to have been sent toward Korea as Pyongyang has threatened to strike key U.S. bases in South Korea, Japan, Guam, Hawaii and its mainland.

The deployment came after Washington sent a series of its strategic weapons systems including the B-52 aircraft, B-2 stealth bombers, F-35 radar-evading fighter jets and nuclear-powered Cheyenne submarine for the allied drills here that end on April 30.

The Pentagon also said it would step up its missile defense against North Korea, unveiling a plan to install 14 new ground-based interceptors at its bases in Alaska and California by September 2017.

Amid increasing peninsular tension, China, which has recently strived to curb North Korean provocations, has repeated its diplomatic rhetoric calling for “restraint and patience.”

But under the surface, Beijing might feel uneasy over Washington’s display of formidable weapons that could be mobilized to keep it in check, particularly at a time of intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry, experts said. Washington argues these assets are defensive in nature.

“The Sino-U.S. relationship is very complex now ― a mixture of partnership and rivalry. With the increased U.S. military presence, China might feel quite displeased as it could think of it as potentially targeting themselves,” said Kim Heung-kyu, politics and diplomacy professor at Sungshin Women’s University.

Kim Ho-sup, political science professor at Chung-Ang University, said Washington appears to have sent a message to China through its recent show of force here to call on Beijing to leverage its influence over the North.

“The U.S. has done much research over how to send diplomatic messages through a show of force since the end of World War II in 1945,” he said.

“A message might have been sent to Beijing as well. China argues its influence over the North is only limited, but the North relies heavily on China for oil and food.”

As the North has pushed for nuclear and missile tests in defiance of Beijing’s admonitions, some signs of change in China’s stance toward Pyongyang have been detected. Observers said Beijing might start to realize the North would be a liability rather than strategic asset.

The Beijing government has reportedly directed its customs service and traffic control offices, financial institutions and border patrol units to abide by U.N. Security Council resolutions adopted to punish Pyongyang for its recent provocations.

It has also stepped up its inspection of cargo going to and from the North and its clampdown on illegal foreign currency exchanges with North Korean banks and defectors working at factories and restaurants, according to recent reports.

“China is already upset with North Korea ignoring its directions on not committing provocations. It is hard to recognize China as a regional great power when it appears to have so little influence on the North,” Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, told The Korea Herald.

“The schoolyard analogy is a bully hitting one of the other students again, and the school principal (China) only urging everyone to show restraint ― not a particularly fair response to the student who was hit. Why wasn’t the bully suspended from school, especially after multiple assaults on the student who was hit?”

Bennett added the regional powers including China should prepare for the possible collapse of the North Korean regime, stressing the North’s provocations are in part desperate attempts to divert the attention of its elites from the regime’s failures.

“There are already signs of a major debate in China, with some leaders arguing for a change in Chinese policy. From my perspective, it is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’ the North Korean regime will collapse,” he said.

With the new leadership led by Xi Jinping, some observers here forecast that he and other top decision-makers might recalibrate China’s approach to the wayward neighbor.

But some others said it would be a mistake to believe the Chinese leadership that honors consensus among various political factions would easily shift its foreign policy or strategy.

“The new leadership in Beijing will not be any more capable of pursuing a radically different policy towards North Korea than the previous leadership. Xi is not a supreme leader like Kim Jong-un,” said Balbina Hwang, professor at Georgetown University and former State Department advisor.

“Xi must lead through consensus and has to balance many different constituencies, and so there will be no fundamental change in Chinese policy towards North Korea.”

Huh Moon-young, a senior fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, echoed her view, noting China’s “tactics” over the North could change, but its strategy or basic policy line would not be easily altered.

“China could stop its oil or food assistance to the North, which is a change in its tactics to deal with the North. But China with a 1.3 billion population would not easily shift its foreign policy strategy,” he said.

In China’s leadership lineup, there has been a delicate balance of power among several factions, which makes it difficult for one clique to make unilateral policy decisions.

Factions include the Communist Youth League ― a youth movement under China’s Communist Party, which has produced top-echelon leaders and forged a political faction that includes the new premier Li Keqiang ― and the “Princelings” ― an elite clique consisting of high-ranking communist officials’ children and cronies, to which Xi belongs.

Though a policy shift may not be easy due to the conservative decision-making structure, Kim Heung-kyu of Sungshin Women’s University said it is worth noting that China’s “foreign policy identity” has begun to change.

“Rather than implementing its foreign policy based on its identity as a developing country, China is now turning toward a policy based on a new identity as a major power,” he said.

“In line of this, China is showing that it would not let North Korean provocations just slip by. It sends a clear message to the North that its provocations would be met with sanctions.”

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)