Korean brokerages said Wednesday the local stock market is likely to gain in January helped by renewed optimism over the U.S. and Chinese economy.
“Expectations are building upon the possibility that the U.S. economy would manage to pull off sustainable growth next year,” said Hong Soon-pyo, analyst Daishin Securities.
Despite the gloomy factors that plagued investors this year, the U.S. market is poised to benefit from improved manufacturing indicators, better outlooks for jobs and the housing sector early next year, Hong said.
China, another key market seen to be linked to the local bourse, is expected to take more flexible policy lines in response to lowered inflationary pressure and slowing growth.
Daishin expects the benchmark KOSPI to move between 1,750 and 2,050 in the year 2012, recommending IT, chemicals, transportation gear and beverage sectors.
As with other securities houses, Daishin believes that the eurozone debt problem will continue to be an important factor that will add to the KOSPI’s volatility.
Although the urgency of the sovereign debt crisis has softened somewhat, analysts and investors alike are closely watching fresh developments from the region in search of any hopeful signs.
Taurus Investment & Securities said a liquidity-driven upturn is likely to usher in the new year.
“Global liquidity is expected to be ample in the first quarter of 2012, which will help boost the KOSPI,” said Park Seung-young, analyst at Taurus.
Park cited the solid domestic demand in Germany and the softening inflationary pressure in China as elements that would help put more money on the market.
Meanwhile, the Korean stock market ranked 11th among the 49 countries tracked by the Morgan Stanley Capital International, or MSCI.
As of Dec. 23, Korea’s year-to-date performance marked a 10.82 percent loss. Though the profitability strayed into negative territory, it’s better than many of the major stock markets. For instance, Japan’s yearly loss reached 18.07 percent during the cited period, Hong Kong also suffered a loss of 18.36 percent. Even China saw its profitability swing to a decline of 19.03 percent.
As far as minimizing losses is concerned, the local bourse performed better than expected, especially compared with other peers in a similar setting, largely because the country’s leading exporters continued to expand their markets, boosting outbound shipments.
Kiwoom Securities said Korea’s major players such as Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor firmed up their standing on the global market while their competitors in Japan and Europe struggled.
Greece ranked the lowest on the MSCI list with a loss of 64.34 percent, reflecting that investors at the heart of the eurozone debt crisis suffered most.
Only three countries on the MSCI index ― Ireland (7.79 percent), Indonesia (4 percent) and the U.S. (0.5 percent) ― turned a profit this year through Dec. 23.
By Yang Sung-jin (
insight@heraldcorp.com)
