Korea enters 2024 in fog of uncertainties

As the calendar flicks over into 2024, South Korea finds itself entangled in an intricate tapestry of mounting uncertainties.

In charting its course forward, Korea will need to navigate rising diplomatic complexities and elevated security risks -- especially the possibility of inter-Korean clashes -- while protecting its economic security amid the strategic competition between the United States and China.

The challenges stem from two pivotal factors, over 10 experts based in South Korea told The Korea Herald.

Key elections in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United States will carry implications for the geopolitical landscape of the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region.

The rivalry between the US and China will remain as a decisive factor influencing economic security, simultaneously impacting the trilateral alignment among North Korea, China and Russia.

Experts paint a pessimistic picture, with the prospect of positive developments elusive. Instead, the Korean Peninsula is in a precarious position in terms of diplomacy, security and the economy.

Elections and NK

"The overall outlook is rather pessimistic, primarily attributed to a higher likelihood of negative conditions escalating, as opposed to positive factors gaining strength," said Cha Du-hyeogn, a principal fellow at the Seoul-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

"Domestic factors, coupled with electoral dynamics, will prove to be pivotal in shaping the landscape on the Korean Peninsula. Chief among these factors is the forthcoming US presidential election."

There is a possibility that ideological battles may escalate before and after South Korea's legislative elections in April, Cha explained, including the dissemination of contrived narratives on North Korean issues. This intensifying partisan rhetoric could provoke North Korea, he said.

South Korea's spy agency assessed that "there is a high likelihood of North Korea conducting military provocations" early this year, especially in the lead-up to the legislative elections in South Korea in a press statement distributed in late December last year.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also issued a warning, adopting a more bellicose tone specifically toward South Korea, in his speech delivered during a five-day year-end plenary meeting of the Party Central Committee that started on Dec. 26.

Kim said that the "undeniable fact is that any trivial accidental factor can lead to physical clashes, with the potential for further escalation in the area of the military demarcation line where vast military forces of both sides stand face to face," North Korean state media reported Sunday.

Kim also defined the inter-Korean relationship as having "become completely entrenched as a hostile state-to-state relationship and two belligerents in a state of war."

Ma Sang-yoon, a professor at the School of International Studies at the Catholic University of Korea, said, "There has been pervasive instability on the Korean Peninsula and a trajectory toward further escalation is observed."

This year, experts said they expect North Korea to adhere to its "frontal breakthrough line," declared in December 2019 after the abrupt breakdown of the Hanoi Summit, advancing its nuclear capabilities at the core.

The effective nullification of the Sept. 19 inter-Korean military agreement unilaterally announced by North Korea in November last year adds another layer of complexity to the security situation on the peninsula.

"The annulment could potentially escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula based on North Korea's needs," said Park Won-gon, director of the Institute of Unification Studies at Ewha Womans University.

"The possibility of an unforeseen, accidental clash between South and North Korea, especially in areas like the NLL (Northern Limit Line), remains open."

North Korea's actions require careful monitoring, particularly in the context of South Korea's legislative elections in April and the US presidential election in November.

"Whether escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula would be advantageous or disadvantageous for North Korea might be a factor in their decision-making. Therefore, complex considerations may come into play," Park said.

Professor Park Ihn-whi, from the Division of International Studies at Ewha Womans University, suggested that the US presidential election might add to the complexity of the peninsula.

"If the US presidential election becomes uncertain or contentious, North Korea might attempt to increase its diplomatic influence. This, in turn, could complicate affairs of the Korean Peninsula and increase the likelihood of strained inter-Korean relations."

Elections deepen uncertainties

The upcoming legislative and presidential elections in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United States may constrict leaders' leeway on foreign policy, potentially heightening uncertainties on the Korean Peninsula.

"There is a growing presence of uncertainties in both diplomatic and security aspects," said Kim Heung-kyu, a director of the US-China Policy Institute at Ajou University.

The international landscape is becoming more uncertain due to electoral dynamics, including the January presidential election in Taiwan, along with the ongoing wars in Israel and Ukraine.

"This heightened uncertainty raises concerns about potential ripple effects on the Korean Peninsula, particularly if the Taiwan issue is mishandled amid the two ongoing wars," Kim said.

"Concurrently, Kishida's Cabinet in Japan grapples with instability, while the US, amidst a pivotal presidential election phase, will face challenges in formulating a cohesive policy toward China amid the complex and contradictory situations."

The US will have to stabilize relations with China to control inflation, but it may be pressured to harden its stance during the election period. Anti-China sentiment in the US introduces a challenging dynamic, with the election looking like it will be close.

The spotlight is currently on Taiwan as it gears up for simultaneous presidential and legislative elections on Jan. 13. The outcome could transform China-Taiwan relations, creating ripples across the region.

Vice President Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate for the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party that is currently in government, finds himself in a tight race with Hou Yu-ih, the presidential candidate of the Kuomintang party that traditionally leans toward closer ties with China.

"The outcomes of the elections in Taiwan carry potentially significant implications for East Asia and the broader context of US-China competition," said Ma.

"The competition between the US and China has a distinct impact on the Korean Peninsula. This dynamic influences North Korea's perception of the current geopolitical landscape and determines the strategic value that China attributes to North Korea."

As the intensification of the US-China competition unfolds, China will increasingly acknowledge the strategic importance of North Korea. Consequently, China is expected to persist in supporting North Korea, providing it with an economic lifeline, Ma explained.

Revisionists and wars

The challenges presented by North Korea are expected to escalate in 2024, as countries like China and Russia continue their efforts to disrupt the international order. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and the Israel-Hamas war pose additional challenges to maintaining this order.

Kim Jae-chun, a professor at Sogang Graduate School of International Studies said North Korea has chosen to assume a "vanguard role among revisionist countries in the polarized international order."

"China and Russia, recognizing the strategic importance of North Korea in this context, appear not only to tolerate but also to encourage the provocations from North Korea. Consequently, the challenges faced by North Korea are poised to escalate, with China and Russia likely to increase their support from the background," Kim said.

"The worldwide endeavors of the revisionist countries to reshape the existing international order will intensify, leading to repercussions in Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula. In summary, I foresee the emergence of an exceedingly unfavorable diplomatic and security environment."

Countries such as South Korea have enjoyed remarkable prosperity within the framework of the existing international order. However, as Kim pointed out, if this order is disrupted, they could face considerable economic challenges.

Moreover, the US presidential election will hurt economic security in South Korea this year, said Lee Wang-hwi, a professor in the Department of Political Science at Ajou University.

"The challenge emerges from the prospect of Trump's potential re-election as US president, given the entirely unpredictable direction of his policies. This introduces uncertainties that cannot be managed," Lee said.

Repercussions of US-China rivalry

Choi Woo-seon, director-general of the Department of International Security and Unification Studies at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, said the US-China relationship would be the biggest diplomatic and security influence on the Korean Peninsula this year.

"While North Korea persists as the most immediate threat, the US-China dynamic will wield a more expansive and profound influence across diverse dimensions," Choi said.

Despite a "period of adjustment," improvements in the US-China relationship have been limited. Efforts at reconciliation remain nominal, and the underlying antagonism continues.

"Therefore, the issue of making choices while concurrently dealing with the United States and China may persist or even intensify. This implies that there will be constraints in formulating policies toward China," Choi said.

"Furthermore, in the economic domain, reaching compromises will be challenging, especially in critical areas like technology export controls and supply chain realignment between the US and China. As these have become nearly zero-sum arenas, South Korea finds itself in a situation where making assertive choices in this regard is almost inevitable."

China reconnection

Experts agreed that South Korea would continue to prioritize relations with the US and Japan.

"The Korean government is highly likely to align with US-led diplomatic initiatives, as it emphasized that the focal point of its diplomacy and security efforts is to foster cooperation and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region in its own Indo-Pacific strategy," said Park Ihn-whi from Ewha Womans University.

"Given the near-certain prospect of a second trilateral summit between Korea, the US, and Japan in Korea this year, the Korean government will exert active efforts to complete the institutionalization of trilateral cooperation."

However, some experts suggest that the Yoon administration's diplomatic initiatives may stall ahead of the US presidential election and the leadership election of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan.

"As the United States and Japan approach pivotal leadership elections, both countries' leaders will have limited scope for diplomatic maneuvering. Notably, Japan braces for the consequential LDP presidency election in September," said Choo Jae-woo, a professor in the Department of Chinese Studies at Kyung Hee University.

"Concurrently, President Biden seeks re-election, while the Republican Party readies itself to reclaim power. With an immersion into domestic politics, diplomatic priorities are expected to pivot prominently, with China-bashing a feature."

Ma said there was no prospect of Japan refraining from coordination with South Korea or trilateral cooperation involving the US, even if it gets a new prime minister.

"The uncertainty surrounding South Korea-Japan cooperation is already significantly embedded in Japan's policy stance, making further changes unlikely," Ma said.

However, some observers said the closer Korea-Japan relations, which have been driven by the efforts of the two leaders, may face challenges due to Kishida's declining approval ratings.

"There is a possibility that the Yoon government could face a lame-duck situation should the opposition emerge victorious in the general elections. In such a scenario, uncertainties surrounding Korea-Japan relations might come to the forefront," Yuji Hosaka, a professor at Sejong University, said.

"However, the situation in Japan presents even more significant concerns. Operating under a cabinet system, (its government) lacks concrete public support. Given its indirect election system, if its approval ratings decline, they have the potential to drop significantly."

Experts highlighted that political support for cooperation remains fragile due to longstanding historical disputes. Consequently, regressive historical perceptions or hawkish statements from a new Japanese leader could damage the Korea-Japan relationship.

Then there is the possibility of Kishida resigning before the LDP leadership election in September.

"In a year marked by uncertainty, making definitive statements about the future of Korea-Japan relations and trilateral relations with the US seems to be challenging," Hosaka said.

Experts underscored the importance of South Korea focusing more on China this year, particularly amid escalating uncertainties in the domains of diplomacy, security and the economy.

"While maintaining our commitment to reinforcing the alliance with the US, we should adopt a more flexible approach to normalize fundamental cooperative relations with China," said Choi from the IFANS. "This year provides an opportune moment to give heightened attention to addressing issues related to China, although progress may take some time."