Trump may bring about 'bolder' N. Korea policy shift if reelected: US expert

Former US President Donald Trump could make a "bolder" shift in North Korea policy if reelected, an American expert said Wednesday, raising the prospects of him eyeing another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

In an interview with Yonhap News Agency, Andrew Yeo, the SK-Korea Foundation chair at the Brookings Institution's Center for East Asia Policy Studies, also warned of a potential policy "clash" between South Korea and the United States should Trump handle the North Korean nuclear quandary from a standpoint of arms control rather than denuclearization.

Trump is seeking a second White House term in the November 2024 election expected to be a rematch between him and incumbent President Joe Biden -- whose "calibrated, practical' approach to the North has borne little fruit amid the regime's rejection of dialogue.

"Under Trump, we are more likely to see a bolder shift in North Korea policy than under a second Biden administration," Yeo said, noting that Trump's policy views are "more flexible" given that he does not appear to have "set" views.

"One (of the reasons) is because Trump -- whether out of his own personal conviction or legacy -- believes that he has some rapport with Kim, and that I think Kim will be more open to talking to Trump than Biden because of that relationship that they had in the past," he added.

During his first presidential term from 2017-2021, Trump sought leader-to-leader diplomacy with the North, which led to the first-ever summit between the two countries in Singapore in 2018 and two subsequent in-person meetings the following year.

Though chances of summitry between the US and the North could be higher under Trump than Biden, the scholar pointed out a caveat: a potential policy cacophony between Seoul and Washington could cause a rift in their alliance.

"If (Trump) gives up on the goal of denuclearization, if he approaches North Korea engagement from the position of arms control or for a freeze of risk mitigation, that might lead to a policy clash with the Yoon (Suk Yeol) government," Yeo said.

The Republican contender's strategy on the North gained renewed attention as Politico, a US media outlet, reported this month that Trump is considering a formula under which Pyongyang freezes its nuclear program -- or retains the existing one -- and stops making new bombs in return for incentives.

Though Trump dismissed it as "fake news," Yeo took note of a debate on whether Trump -- known for his transactional foreign policy anchored in a cost-benefit calculus -- will be more open to the idea of South Korea having nuclear arms for its own defense should he let the North keep its nuclear weapons.

"I think that's one of the concerns under Trump ... Would we see nuclear proliferation on the Korean Peninsula?" he said. "It's not just on the North Korean side, but on the part of South Korea as well."

The scholar also touched on worries among experts that if negotiations with Pyongyang resume, Trump could make concessions on issues concerning the South Korea-US alliance, like a drawdown of American troops in South Korea

"If he begins to devalue the alliance, he might take his own approach to North Korea, and he might be more willing to just push for the freeze and to give some concessions to North Korea," he said. "But the question is what those concessions are. If they relate to the alliance, that would undermine and divide the alliance."

On deepening security cooperation among South Korea, the US and Japan that Biden has fostered, Yeo said that under Trump, it could slow down due in part to his team's policy review, but it would not be brought to naught given its benefits.

"The acceleration of trilateral cooperation, the frequency of meetings, the sense of urgency that we're seeing with Biden, I think, would not be there under Trump," Yeo said.

"Trump thinks about foreign policy in terms of transactional costs ... If it's the US that's funding the burden on North Korean missile threats or on supply chains and Chinese economic coercion, it will be much more costly for the US to just take this on itself," he added.

Under a second-term Biden administration, Yeo predicted, there would be some policy tweaks like "de-emphasizing" the denuclearization aspect to make North Korea more willing to engage, and bringing in China in a concerted effort to address the North Korean conundrum.

"There will be some shift in direction," he said. "I don't think it'll be as significant or a major departure from the first Biden administration, but a lot of it will have to do with where the Yoon government is on North Korea policy and also how the North Koreans themselves would react."

Asked about how Pyongyang would act in the lead-up to the US election, Yeo said that the regime could try to undertake provocative acts if they would be "helpful to get Trump reelected." (Yonhap)