Kim Jong-un struggles to sell '2 Koreas' narrative at home

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not yet mustered public support for his bid to redefine the two Koreas as separate, hostile states -- a sharp break from his predecessors’ vision of a unified peninsula under a single nation and state -- former North Korean diplomats said. Some warned that Kim may ramp up military threats against South Korea to push his agenda forward.

Seven of 12 former North Korean diplomats who have publicly defected to South Korea gathered on Thursday for a rare forum hosted by the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council to discuss the rationale behind Kim Jong-un's antiunification policy.

A key focus was why North Korean state media, in Wednesday's report on the Oct. 7-8 Supreme People's Assembly session, failed to mention the inclusion of antiunification and "two Koreas" clauses in its newly approved constitutional amendments — despite confirming that amendments to the socialist constitution had been addressed.

The Yoon Suk Yeol administration and Seoul-based observers widely expected the October session to follow through on Kim’s January directive, which sought to formalize the two Koreas as "hostile" separate states in a "belligerent state," define territorial boundaries and erase a legacy of unification through constitutional revisions.

However, the outcomes defied these expectations.

"The absence of any mention of such constitutional amendment reflects the significant burden that the idea of abandoning unification still poses for the North Korean regime," said Ko Young-hwan, incumbent president of the National Institute for Unification Education and former first secretary at the North Korean embassy in the Republic of Congo.

Ko explained that North Korean propaganda had long highlighted the achievements of the country's late founder, Kim Il-sung, and his successor, Kim Jong-il -- Kim Jong-un’s grandfather and father, respectively -- as being committed to unifying the Korean Peninsula. This narrative has persisted for around seven decades, becoming deeply embedded in North Korea's ideological education.

Historically, in the 1960s Kim Il-sung refined the Juche ideology to transition from collective leadership within the Workers' Party to a centralized personal dictatorship, establishing himself as "suryong," or the supreme leader. Through Juche, the country's founder legitimized his authority as the central figure guiding national liberation and Korean unification.

"If (Kim Jong-un) were to completely erase the achievements of his predecessors, it would amount to a form of self-denial, given that his leadership is rooted in their lineage, the so-called 'Paektusan Bloodline,'" Ko said. "To abruptly abandon the unification goal championed by his grandfather and father, and to formalize such a shift in the constitution -- what justification could they provide to persuade the people or convince the party, government and military elites? I believe such a rationale has not yet developed."

Tae Yong-ho, secretary-general of the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, said, "The reason North Korea has yet to disclose whether it has amended the constitution on this matter is that it has not yet succeeded in persuading the North Korean public to accept Kim Jong-un’s concept of the two Koreas as hostile states."

According to Tae, when the North Korean leader introduces a new policy, officials and citizens typically appear on state media, including Korean Central Television, to praise it, followed by editorials and commentaries in the Rodong Sinmun, the organ of the Workers' Party of Korea, to reinforce its legitimacy.

However, no such endorsements have appeared this time, and the usual next step -- educating party members and the public through lectures and discussions -- has not taken place.

"Simply put, lacking a solid theoretical basis to justify the amendments to the public, North Korea appears to be opting for a strategy of implementing administrative actions first, followed by a gradual disclosure of the constitutional changes to minimize potential backlash," Tae, the former North Korean deputy ambassador to Britain, said.

Kim Dong-su, a former second secretary at North Korea's embassy in Italy, stated that the Kim Jong-un regime "has opted for a hostile policy toward South Korea as a measure to salvage itself, driven by growing regime vulnerabilities and a sense of crisis" against South Korea.

He explained that, with unification through communization no longer feasible, North Korea has adopted a hostile policy to legitimize its nuclear governance strategy, which it sees as essential to regime survival.

"(Kim Jong-un's) offensive hostile policy (toward South Korea) stems from aggressive perception and judgment that such policy will be more advantageous than undermining the achievements of his predecessors or the ideals of 'ethnic unity and unification,'" the ex-diplomat said. "It is expected that North Korea will primarily focus on strengthening military threats against South Korea, pursuing nonmilitary hybrid responses, and continuing efforts to geographically isolate the two Koreas."

The General Staff of the North Korean Army announced Wednesday the start of operations to block all roads and railways connecting to South Korea and fortify its side with strong defensive structures.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed Monday that North Korea is carrying out activities near the Gyeongui and Donghae roads, believed to be preparations for detonating inter-Korean connecting roads.

Ko stated that the current situation indicates North Korea is "shutting itself off, sealing everything tightly and striving to sustain the regime across four generations to ensure its survival."

Ko further explained that Kim Jong-un might believe unification will remain out of reach as long as the South Korea-US alliance endures and extended deterrence mechanisms remain in place.

"After meeting Trump in Hanoi and Singapore, Kim may be thinking: ‘If this man returns to power, he might withdraw US Forces Korea, and the Korea-US alliance may not endure. Wouldn’t it be worth making a move then?’ It appears Kim is forming personal judgments based on this reasoning," Ko said.

However, Kim Dong-su warned that the antiunification and the "two Koreas" narrative could "trigger side effects and heighten vulnerabilities" for the Kim Jong-un regime. He explained that North Korea has embedded the concept of unification and shared ethnic identity with South Korea into its political framework for nearly 70 years, spanning three generations of Kim family leadership.

"Given the structural nature of hereditary regimes and totalitarianism, ideological contradictions and policy confusion are expected to lead to various side effects," he noted. "Abandoning the long-held agenda of communist-led unification, along with rejecting shared ethnic identity, is expected to foster skepticism, dissatisfaction and confusion among both the public and the ruling elites, rather than building consensus."