Uncertainties stemming from the eurozone debt crisis are likely to impact the Korean economy, Asia‘s fourth-largest, by sapping overseas demand for local products, HSBC Bank Plc said Thursday.
“The uncertainties may have dampening impacts on (Korea’s) export mechanism ... If consumers are cautious, they will buy less goods,” Steven Major, Global Head of HSBC‘s Fixed Income Research, told reporters in a media session.
Major said Germany may be an exception that could help offset weakening demand in other regional economies such as France and Italy, citing recovering consumption in the eurozone’s economic powerhouse.
Germany is expected to expand 0.8 percent in 2012, compared with an average negative 1 percent growth forecast for the 17 eurozone countries, according to HSBC data.
Meanwhile, HSBC said in a separate report that currency volatility stemming from the European debt crisis and slowing U.S. economic growth will likely dent Asian bond markets this year.
HSBC said Asia‘s bond markets remain susceptible to net outflows, but added the scale will be smaller than that seen in 2008 and 2009, when the global financial crisis pummeled markets around the world.
The bank said policy responses triggered by external woes may help offset the risks stemming from the eurozone crisis.
Countries in Asia will join the monetary easing drive initiated by China, Indonesia and Thailand, HSBC said, adding South Korea and the Philippines are set to follow suit.
South Korea froze its benchmark seven-day repo rate at 3.25 percent for the sixth consecutive month in December in a bid to shield the local economy from external woes. Analysts, however, have raised views the central bank may move to cut the policy rate later in the year when the eurozone debt risks ease.
The Bank of Korea is widely expected to leave the key rate unchanged for January at its first policy meeting of the year on Friday. (Yonhap News)
