China has been "closely watching" the possibility of a visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to Russia in May, but has no conclusive evidence yet that Kim's trip will take place, a senior South Korean diplomat said Friday.
Russia has said that Kim would be among those attending the May 9 ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. If realized, it would be Kim's first foreign trip since taking the helm of the reclusive state about three years ago.
"Chinese officials said that they are closely watching and analyzing the possibility of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia and its security ramifications on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia," said the diplomat on condition of anonymity because such dialogue is confidential.
"But, the consensus between South Korea and China is that it is still too early to conclude that Kim will visit Russia in May," the diplomat said.
"From North Korea's perspective, a calculation would be complex because of Russia's stance that it remains opposed to recognizing North Korea as a nuclear power as well as the development of North Korea's nuclear capabilities," the diplomat said.
North Korea is seeking to deepen both diplomatic and economic ties with Russia at a time when its political relationship with China remains frosty amid international pressure over its nuclear ambitions and dismal human rights record.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been under intense pressure over the conflict in Ukraine, is also eager to bolster ties with North Korea in an apparent effort against America's pivot to Asia.
Some analysts are concerned that closer ties between North Korea and Russia could complicate diplomatic efforts to put pressure on the North to give up its nuclear ambitions.
Li Kaisheng, research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in an op-ed published by the state-run Global Times newspaper Friday that Kim's choice of Russia for his first foreign trip would be of no particular importance for China.
Li said China "has declared that it firmly opposed Pyongyang's development of nuclear weapons. Thus, if Kim does not show good faith over this issue, Beijing obviously has no reason to receive him."
"Perhaps, Kim still deems that he could keep North Korea's relationship with China in the traditional pattern, under which Beijing, to avoid losing Pyongyang as a buffer zone, would keep its eyes shut to Pyongyang's behavior that might harm China's interests and would warmly embrace Kim's visit," Li said.
"However, China has grown bored with constantly being subject to North Korea's demands. Especially after Xi Jinping took over as Chinese president, its diplomatic priority has become seizing the strategic initiative and not to be easily led by the nose. If Kim wants to keep playing this game, he would only run into opposition," Li said.
"It doesn't matter to Beijing if Kim does not choose China as his first stop," Li said. (Yonhap)
