[Lee Jong-soo] Trump-Kim summit is only the beginning

Much remains uncertain about the upcoming Trump-Kim summit. Though caution is necessary in dealing with North Korea, the US officials preparing for this unprecedented event must be open to all possible outcomes, including a real breakthrough paving the way for positive changes in North Korea and the end of the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula.

First, it is important to not set expectations too high. This is only the first ever summit between North Korea and the US. One cannot expect to solve all important issues in one meeting, and the two sides must not approach this summit as if this were their only opportunity to settle their differences and they will have to resort to war if they fail this time.

In fact, the two sides must approach this summit most importantly as an opportunity to “get to know each other” and build a relationship. In any human interaction, including in business and politics, a certain amount of trust is necessary before two parties can come to an agreement and strike a deal. In the case of the US and North Korea, the two sides lack official diplomatic relations and have a decades-old history of conflict and mistrust.
The summit affords an opportunity to build rapport and possibly trust at the highest level of the two countries’ leadership. A key objective of this summit should be to establish mechanisms for channels of regular communication and exchanges between the two sides, such as more summit meetings, a hotline between the two leaders, regular working-level meetings between officials and cultural, educational and other nongovernmental exchanges. These follow-up confidence-building measures will be key to defusing future spikes in tension and to the two sides making progress in building the trust necessary to tackle thorny issues such as denuclearization and signing of a peace treaty.

Second, considering the past history of dealings between the US and North Korea, which is littered with duplicitous behavior on the part of Pyongyang, it is entirely possible this summit is a trap set up by North Korea to gain legitimacy and concessions from the US while offering nothing of lasting substance in return. The US should definitely be prepared to face and handle this possibility. On the other hand, however, it is also possible that Kim is desirous of a genuine partnership with the US and an eventual peaceful end to the Cold War confrontation on the Korean Peninsula. Though this latter possibility may seem far-fetched given Kim’s record of bloody purges and the horrific human rights record of his regime, US policymakers should be open to this possibility as well.

Given the opaque nature of the Pyongyang regime, it is not clear exactly what is driving Kim’s recent peace overtures to both South Korea and the US. Possible explanations include:

1. The US “maximum pressure” strategy of tighter sanctions is working;

2. The perceived threat of a “bloody nose” pre-emptive strike against North Korea by the US has made Kim desirous of reaching a deal with the US;

3. The recent deterioration in Pyongyang’s relations with Beijing due in part to greater Chinese compliance with the sanctions against Pyongyang has pushed Kim to reach an accommodation with the US;

4. Kim may be facing domestic political pressures and sees in a partnership with the US a possible source of support;

5. Kim desires to improve the North Korean economy as part of his “Byungjin strategy” (simultaneous progress in military and economic arenas) and sees the US as an important economic partner;

6. Kim has now consolidated his rule after years of purges and now feels secure enough to become “his own man” and risk treading new paths not taken by his father or grandfather.

Any of the above or a combination of them or other factors may be at work. Whatever the case may be, the US must be prepared to face the possibility that North Korea under Kim is now at a crossroads, where the country may be able to enter into an era of significant reforms if given the right encouragement and partnership by foreign partners including the US. Indeed, there are signs that the North Korean economy has recently been undergoing significant changes in the direction of a greater role for market forces.

The upcoming summit provides an opportunity to size up and potentially partner with a young leader who may or may not turn out to be a reformer. The only way to find out is to try, as the only sure way to fail in something is to not try at all. Though caution is warranted, visionary statesmanship is also in order.


By Lee Jong-soo

Lee Jong-soo is senior managing director at Brock Securities and center associate at Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University. The opinions expressed in this essay are solely his own. He can be followed on Twitter at @jameslee004. -- Ed.